In this interview, Peter Jennings appeared on ABC NSW Statewide Drive to discuss the IPA’s research on Australia’s National Defence.
All media appearances posted onto the IPA website are directly related to the promotion and dissemination of IPA research.
Below is a transcript of the interview.
Jess McGuire:
ABC New South Wales. Now, lots of thoughts and policy and planning and a lot of money goes into our defence strategy. So are we doing it right? Do we need to be doing more? Do we need to be changing what we are doing? Well, today, a new research paper from Strategic Analysis Australia and the Institute of Public Affairs is arguing that Australia needs to be better prepared to defend itself. Peter Jennings is from Strategic Analysis Australia. He joins us now. Peter, thanks for being here.
Peter Jennings:
Hi, there, Jess.
Jess McGuire:
Now, the research paper that you’re involved in, it looks at some of the geopolitical issues that are facing our country. What do you consider to be some of the issues we should be concerned about or at least considering when we plan our security strategy?
Peter Jennings:
Well, probably numbers one through 10 on that list all come back to the People’s Republic of China becoming a much more powerful country, but also a much more aggressive one going through, the biggest military build-up really of any country since the end of the second World War. That is the thing which focuses the minds of Australian defence planners.
And there are many different dimensions to that. It can be China building relations with the Solomon Islands. It can be China doing aggressive things to Australian ships and aircraft in the South China Sea. But broadly, how we deal with an aggressive China, I think is the number one defence problem we have to worry about.
Jess McGuire:
Okay, so is part of our tension or the perceived tension with China our closeness with countries like America?
Peter Jennings:
Well, I wouldn’t say that except that what China is doing is really challenging America’s position as being the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. So that does come back to countries which have military alliances with the US like we do and the Japanese and Koreans and Filipinos and a number of others, because it’s no longer the case that we can manage to do both, I think. We’re going to have to work out how we can either strengthen that alliance and try and encourage China to not be militarily aggressive. Or we could do away with the alliance, which I think a lot of Australians wouldn’t like, leaving ourselves more vulnerable to China, but maybe cutting that dispute of difference between this.
Jess McGuire:
Australia is involved obviously in AUKUS, which sees us in an alliance with America and the United Kingdom. Is making the decision to be involved in alliances like that, is that likely to cause issues with China? Should we be, I don’t know, trying to make more alliances with China? Is that a smarter move?
Peter Jennings:
Well, I wouldn’t have said so. China certainly doesn’t like it, but that’s because it sees AUKUS as something which might constrain its ability to become this dominant player. So China has, ever since AUKUS has been announced, it’s been very actively campaigning against it, trying to get countries in Southeast Asia to turn against it and be opposed to it. It’s the kind of a zero-sum game.
My view is I think AUKUS is necessary. I think if it can be made to work, it strengthens our defence capability and that actually becomes a deterrent to conflict. But the problem we’ve got is that AUKUS is at least 10 years away, on some accounts even longer, before we actually see real military capability in the water as new submarines. So it doesn’t address the strategic challenges we face in the 2020s, and it only starts to become relevant as we get into the 2030s.
Jess McGuire:
You’re suggesting in this report that perhaps we should be developing closer relationships with countries like Japan or India. Can you talk more about that and how we should be doing that?
Peter Jennings:
Well, Japan and India are the two, along with us, the largest, most consequential democracies in the region. Japan has an alliance with the United States in its own right, it has since the end of the war. And we have been building closer defence relations with Japan off the back of deep trade and investment connections over decades.
I think now is the time to think about how can we make that relationship even closer? And one way to do that would be to think about making Japan a formal treaty ally, bring them into the ANZUS Alliance relationship, which we have with the United States. And maybe thinking about inviting Japan to station some of their own military forces in the top end of the country, along with the US Marines so that they can work more closely together.
Jess McGuire:
So for Australia’s safety, we would expand American’s Marine Corps presence in Northern Australia?
Peter Jennings:
I think this is the cheapest, most effective form of deterrence that we can get in the 2020s, if I can put it that way.
Jess McGuire:
There’s a lot of complexities when it comes to international relations, so do you see any potential challenges or some diplomatic repercussions that might arise if we do increase foreign military presence on our soil?
Peter Jennings:
I think it’s something that has to be explained to the region, but most countries, most of our neighbours are equally as worried about China as we are. So in a sense, I don’t know that that would cause any more upset than, for example, the agreement 10 years ago to bring the US Marines into Darwin in a small way.
And bear in mind, the purpose of these sorts of military manoeuvring is not to go to war, it’s actually to prevent war by making the case to China that, not today, today’s too dangerous. It’s not a smart thing to do. Let’s just stick with the current arrangements. I think we’re going to have to get stronger if we’re going to persuade Beijing that that’s what it should be doing rather than threatening the status quo.
Jess McGuire:
Is there potential there for taking an aggressive approach, as far as doing significant defence upgrades, might lead to an arms race in the region? Could that cause more tensions as well?
Peter Jennings:
There is an arms race in the region being led by China. And one way to think about that is every year, China launches more ships for its Navy than we have in our entire Navy. So the idea that Australia is going to be the sort of the breakout country that causes an arms race, that really doesn’t fly, against the growth of military power that we’re seeing up north. And it’s hardly surprising that other countries are worried about that and they’re reacting to it. So we’ve been in an arms race situation, I would say for a decade, but I don’t think anyone really thinks Australia is the source of the problem.
Jess McGuire:
There’s a recommendation in the report to, if I’m right here, to acquire some B-21 Raider stealth bombers as to strengthen deterrence quickly, but there are some really high costs involved. Even if we look at the nuclear submarines deal, there are some really high costs involved in such advanced weaponry. So is that investment, do you think that’s the most effective use of the defence budget? And especially, I guess looking at all the other things that Australia is currently really struggling with, and I know it’s not defence related, but our healthcare system for one, our education system, that money is needed for these things. Is investing in weaponry really the best choice?
Peter Jennings:
Well, governments always have to make these really tough guns versus butter decisions. And I’m not suggesting that it’s easy because we need both guns and butter frankly, in terms of how our country functions. But we’ve been cruising on defence spending for decades. We’ve only just recently reached about 2% of gross national product. We’ve been able to spend such a low amount on defence because we have the American alliance relationship. And that is a situation which I think is not going to be sustainable going forward. The Americans have got higher expectation. And our region’s becoming tougher. We live in a pretty hard neighbourhood.
So yes, my view is that we need to spend more money on defence, and we also need to make investments which will actually bring real military capability to the Defence Force sooner than the 10 years plus that is involved with the nuclear submarines. So we’ve looked at the B-21 strike bomber as being an example of that. But basically, it, like a submarine, what it does is that it can take a long range weapon a significant distance from our shores. It’s just a different delivery method, by air rather than underwater. But it’s also something that we could get sooner. And in terms of total cost, probably about a third of what the nuclear submarines would cost us.
Jess McGuire:
Peter Jennings is from Strategic Analysis Australia. Really appreciate our conversation, Peter. Thanks so much.
Peter Jennings:
Thank you, Jess. Appreciate it.
Jess McGuire:
Good on you. ABC New South Wales 1302 662 279 is the talkback number, you can also text me on 0467 922 684. Greg says, “Being the best country in the world, or God’s country as I like to call it, we have to be able to defend ourselves. Missiles and drones seem to be the go-to thing. We are an island, we should strategically base our defence around this. Just my two bobs worth.” Good on you, Greg. Thank you for that.
This transcript with Peter Jennings talking on ABC NSW Statewide Drive from 7 August 2024 has been edited for clarity.
