John Storey On Closing The Gap Success Tasmania Talk LAFM

The Institute of Public Affairs’ Director of the Legal Rights Program, John Storey, joined Richard Perno on Tasmania Talks to discuss new IPA research on how the Voice to Parliament may undermine Tasmania’s Closing the Gap success.

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Below is a transcript of the interview.

Richard Perno:

I think this survey that’s just been put out by the Institute of Public Affairs is probably indicative of how Tasmania will vote. Now, as you know, and we’ve been talking to many, including Noel Pearson from the Yes, Jacinta Price from the No. We’ve talked to Warren Mundine. We’ve spoken to many of those in the Yes camp in our studio, and you’ve spoken to them as well. Whether this Institute of Public Affairs is going to reflect exactly what we’re feeling now is probably fairly well spot-on on Saturday week. 33,000 Indigenous Aussies living here are experiencing better life outcomes compared to those everywhere else. We’re outperforming the nation on Closing the Gap where our kids are concerned, being born healthy and strong, and ensuring that Indigenous Tasmanians are not overrepresented in the criminal justice system.

Now, this has been part of the argument that I’ve presented to those in the Yes Vote, whether when we vote, if we say Yes, will it shrink the amount of numbers in prison? Will it also give longevity to kids, and will it decrease the crime rate? The director of the International Public Affairs Legal Rights Project who undertook this research is John Storey. Good morning, John.

John Storey:

Hi Richard. How’s it going?

Richard Perno:

All right. Is this a reflection of the polls that we’ll see on Saturday week in Tasmania, or is it going to persuade us who are on the fence? Which way are you reading this from IPA?

John Storey:

Yeah. Well, the Institute of Public Affairs did some polling a month ago. It’s only a couple of weeks old now. And like a lot of the national polls, it showed that 53% of Tasmanians intend to vote no. 42, yes, and there was still some undecided. But one of the questions we asked is whether a Voice to Parliament enshrined in the Constitution will achieve better outcomes for Indigenous Australians. So we polled over 1,000 Tasmanians, and only a third, 33% said that it would. And look, our analysis of the actual outcomes in Tasmania, the Closing the Gap figures shows that Tasmania is leading the country. And so, I think they’re probably right to think that this National Voice in Canberra, enshrined in the Constitution, isn’t going to make much difference in Tasmania.

Richard Perno:

In fact, your survey suggests, doesn’t it, John, we’re performing better overall than all the other states and territories. We’ve got 16 priority Closing the Gap targets. And if this survey took place or not, the outcome would be the same, if you get my drift, wouldn’t it, John? It’d be the same thing.

John Storey:

Yeah. Well, that’s right. Tasmania is leading the country in Closing the Gap. So, what Closing the Gap is, is it’s an intergovernmental agreement to target 17 socioeconomic outcomes. One of those outcomes we don’t have, state by state data force. So that’s why we talk about the 16 that we do. And what the IPA did is we ranked every state and territory in each of the categories, each of the 16 categories, to see who would come out ahead.

The really interesting thing is that the states and territories that generally do the worst are, as you would expect, the states and territories with the largest proportion of Indigenous Australians. If there’s a gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous and it takes resources and effort to try to close that gap, then obviously the higher the proportion, that’s going to be a bit tougher. And the data did show that Northern Territory, WA, Queensland have a fair way to go. The states with really low proportions of Indigenous people, like Victoria and ACT, are doing quite well. The interesting thing is that Tasmania, of all the states, has the highest proportion of Indigenous people, other than the Northern Territory. It’s 6%, yet it is also leading the country in these outcomes.

Richard Perno:

Why, John? The question is why are we doing that? Why are we doing so well here? What’s happening?

John Storey:

It’s a good question. I mean, I think Tasmania being separate from the mainland, it’s pretty used to coming up with local solutions to local problems. And I think it’s just good local policy dealing with the issues on the ground that are achieving good outcomes. As I said, it’s not an issue of simply urbanization or the proportion of the population, because ACT and Victoria are more urbanized and they’re doing not as good as Tasmania, and the proportion of the population is quite high. So it’s definitely something you’re doing well in Tasmania. And that’s the big concern, I think, about the Voice. It’ll be a national body based in Canberra, focused on national issues and national politics. They’re already talking about treaties and Australia Day and that sort of thing. And the concern is that local solutions will actually get drowned out and you might end up with worse outcomes because local people are being ignored and what works in one area is overshadowed by some objective in Canberra.

Richard Perno:

So, John, are you thinking from the Institute of Public Affairs, the tyranny of distance and the divorcing, if you like, or the tyranny of distance of being Canberra and those far-flung regions of Australia, they’re so disconnected by the distance that they’re out of touch?

John Storey:

Yeah. Yeah, that’s right. I mean, what the data showed, that we looked at, is that there are different outcomes in different measurements in different parts of Australia. And so that means that looks at a one-size-fits-all body in the Constitution that says to the government, “Well, you’ve got to do this or you’ve got to do that.” That’s not how it works. You’ve got to look at local grassroots problems and then find the local solutions. And at the moment, Tasmania is doing the best on that.

Under the government-preferred model for the Voice, known as a Calma-Langton report, there would be 24 members of the Voice based in Canberra, but only two of them would be Tasmanian, or would be Tasmanian-based. So the chances of Tasmanian solutions getting an airing in Canberra, I think it would be quite the opposite. There’ll be a lot of, “Well, this is how it should be done,” top down solutions. And that would be a real concern.

Richard Perno:

On that. There’s been so many referendums, and you’ve seen, haven’t you, John? At the IPA, there’s so many surveys going out, you just blank your mind out and say, “Well, hang on a minute.” But one survey did come to my desk this morning suggesting the under 49s seem to be the provocateurs, if you like, of the Yes vote. The younger and even the new ones, the 18-24s who’ll be voting for the first time are also saying yes. Are they doing it emotively rather than, if you like, on stats and what the real issues are?

John Storey:

Yeah, I think emotion does play a big part of it. I mean, I would blame our education system for that outcome. Our education system is very much indoctrinating young Australians that their country is a bad country, that it’s done the wrong thing by Indigenous people. It’s a narrative of villains and victims. That there are certain people that will be perpetual victims and we’ve got to atone for that. And look, that obviously has an impact on young minds. And I think that there is this sense that Australia has done the wrong thing and we need to atone for it. I think that the problem is, even if you accept that, what does this Voice do to rectify any of that? And if you actually look at the data, things are getting better. There are places like Tasmania that are doing extremely well. Let’s not ignore that.

Richard Perno:

Then they say that if we say no, it’s going to cause a problem in Parliament. And if we say yes, it’s going to cause a problem in government. But that’s like any other referendum or any other election, isn’t it? There’s always some sort of argument where laws are written and progressed. So are we saying no in Tasmania in this upcoming referendum, John from the IPA, because we can’t see that it’ll make any difference that we’re doing okay? It’s not political decision. It’s based on stats and what we’re seeing in our own backyard here.

John Storey:

Yeah, I expect the polling that shows that Tasmania is leaning no, would be based on two factors. And look, you’d know this better than me, but probably a bit of a reluctance to be told what to do from Canberra and the mainland, which this very much would be. And the other one is probably just that understanding on the ground that the Indigenous people you meet in Tasmania are doing pretty well. There’s always improvements. There’s always some areas of improvement, and no one’s saying it’s mission accomplished and there’s nothing to work on. But I think that understanding that the stats are pretty good in Tasmania might make people realize… I mean, there are a number of reasons that a no case and others have put forward for voting no. It will cause division or it will have legal risk or lack of detail and that sort of thing.

But the ultimate tragedy would be if we go through this process and get this Voice and it produces worse outcomes for Indigenous people. And that’s the real concern, that at a Canberra-based bureaucracy, that’ll cost an absolute fortune, it might actually take funds and distract from what’s actually working.

Richard Perno:

And I think your survey also, John, says that the Canberra-based Voice focused on an agenda of the political class and activists will put at risk hard-won improvements in Indigenous outcomes.

John Storey:

Yeah. Well, that’s very much our concern. The way it’s being designed is very much that members of the Voice will be of the activist class, self-appointed effectively by themselves. And you can already tell through this referendum campaign the amount of energy that’s devoted to things like treaties and talking about Australia Day and Australia atoning for its horrible past and that sort of thing. Where is the discussion that, well, this will help solve incarceration rates, or this will help improve child mortality, or anything like that? Because the reality is there’s just no detail that would suggest that. And it’s really just a vibe that, “Well, if we listen to Indigenous people, everything will be better.” Well, it’s really going to depend on who gets in there and what they’re saying. And if they’re focused on Canberra politics and the agenda of the universities and critical race theory and the like, that’s not going to help anyone living in a remote community or an Indigenous person who’s making the best of it in places like Tassie.

This transcript with John Storey talking on Tasmania Talks LAFM from 5 October 2023 has been edited for clarity.