IPA Poll: Attitude To The Voice In Tasmania

Tasmanians are forming a consensus around a ‘No’ vote at the forthcoming referendum, because they do not, in the main, believe the Voice will lead to better outcomes for Indigenous Australians, and that not enough information has been provided on the Voice to Parliament.

• Three quarters of ‘No’ voters say they do not have enough information.
• Nine in ten ‘No’ voters do not believe the voice will lead to better outcomes for Indigenous Australians.
• Nine in ten ‘No’ voters are concerned that the Voice could lead to a treaty and reparations.

The leaning of Tasmanians’ vote is heavily aligned with their views on whether the Voice will lead to better outcomes for Indigenous Australians on issues like health, poverty, and incarceration. The ‘Yes’ vote is at 93% among those who think it will lead to better outcomes, while it is at just 6% for those who do not think it will lead to better outcomes.

Overall, most Tasmanians (58%) do not believe they have been provided with enough information about the scope, powers, and consequences of the proposed Voice for them to make an informed decision. Just slightly over one-third of Tasmanians believe they have received enough information.

One in four Tasmanians is concerned that the Voice could lead to a treaty and reparations. Just under one in three is not concerned, while approximately 45% are unsure. This shows that Tasmanians are deeply divided on the issue of treaty and reparations, and that it is a heavily contested area.

Opposition to the Voice is distributed across the Tasmanian community. Every electorate has a ‘No’ vote above 50%, with Clark showing the highest ‘Yes’ vote at just 45%. But even Clark, which takes in Hobart, registered a strong ‘No’ vote of 52%.

Every age group sampled is opposed to the Voice, with young Tasmanians the most likely to indicate a ‘No’ vote at the referendum.

While the ‘No’ vote is clearly ahead, the Voice debate has divided the Tasmanian community along gender, age, and political lines.

Two questions were asked relating to intention to vote at the Voice to Parliament referendum.

The first question was: Later this year, Australians will be required to vote in a referendum on the following matter, I quote, ‘to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice’, end quote. How do you intend on voting? The results were:

• Yes: 39%
• No: 48%
• Undecided: 13%

The second question was: Voting in the referendum is compulsory for eligible Australian citizens. Even if it is just a slight leaning how do you intend on voting? The results were:

• Yes: 42%
• No: 53%
• Still Undecided: 5%

The purpose of the second question is to, as far as possible, replicate the actual requirement on voting in the referendum, which is that it is compulsory.

The third question was: Do you believe enough information has been provided to Tasmanians about the scope, powers and consequencesof the proposed Federal Indigenous Voice to Parliament for you to make an informed choice with your vote? The results were:

• Yes: 35%
• No: 58%
• Unsure: 7%

The fourth question was: If a Voice to Parliament is enshrined in the Constitution do you believe it will lead to better outcomes for Indigenous Australians on issues like health, poverty and incarceration?

• Yes: 33%
• No: 49%
• Unsure: 18%

The fifth question was: Some people say a Voice to Parliament enshrined in the Constitution would lead to treaty which could lead to Australians paying reparations and compensation to Indigenous Australians. Does this concern you?

• Yes: 25%
• No: 31%
• Unsure: 44%