One of the unknowns about the next state election is One Nation. Until recently, Labor and the Liberals thought: “Hanson can’t happen here”. But maybe she might.
The federal Liberal Party and the state of Victoria have a few things in common. Once, both were well-run. Once, both had a future. And once, saying you were a Liberal or a Victorian didn’t provoke mirth and/or pity.
Today, the same thing can be said about both the Liberals and Victoria: “It’s not so bad that it can’t get worse.”
The shocking story that emerged this week of the censorship of evidence of CFMEU corruption on a massive scale, all while the Victorian Labor government looked the other way, wasn’t in fact shocking at all.
The assumption is that that’s how business is done in the state.
A rough estimate of the cost of these crimes to Victorian taxpayers and to taxpayers across the country (given that many of the corrupted building projects were federally funded) is $15 billion.
To put that amount into context, in the last financial year, the Victorian government’s spending on infrastructure was $24 billion.
What’s happened is not past history. Jacinta Allan, the Victorian premier who in nine months’ time will ask Victorians to vote for Labor for a fourth consecutive term, was the minister responsible for the state’s construction program in Daniel Andrews’ government.
As yet, Allan has refused to provide any answers to how she allowed government construction sites to be overrun by drug-dealing bikie gangs.
“The Victorian ALP government and its allies are too powerful to take on. On a risk/reward calculation, surrender is better than confrontation.”
Last week, Allan refused to answer any questions about the amount paid by Victorian taxpayers to settle a legal claim by a female inmate assaulted in a women’s prison by a convicted murderer who had previously been a man.
Allan said she would not comment on the case because it was a “private matter”.
With a massive majority in the lower house of the state parliament, the votes of Greens and left-leaning independents in the upper house, and with the support of a sympathetic media, the Victorian Labor government has done largely as it pleases.
The state is the embodiment of Lord Acton’s dictum about absolute power and absolute corruption.
Last year, the Business Council of Australia ranked Victoria as the worst state or territory in which to do business.
As Professor Gigi Foster said, “Victoria stands at the precipice of a fiscal crisis.”
Government debt as a share of the state economy has gone from 15 per cent in the Cain and Kirner years of the 1990s, to close to zero under Jeff Kennett, to today, nearly 25 per cent. Victoria’s per capita household disposable income is now just 90 per cent of the national average.
While Victoria declines, the state’s business community, for reasons that are easy to identify, has largely sat on its hands.
The Victorian ALP government and its allies are too powerful to take on. On a risk/reward calculation, surrender is better than confrontation.
Government in Victoria has become so all-encompassing that businesses have little alternative other than to accept the nature of the political regime and then work within it as best they can.
The Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry last year received $7 million from membership subscriptions and $14 million from the federal and Victorian governments to run government programs.
Until recently, the Victorian business community saw little reason to support the Liberal opposition.
Under new Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, that’s a perception that’s changing.
To win government in November, the Coalition must win 16 seats in addition to the 29 it holds. To get close will be a significant achievement.
A future Labor government that carried even a hint of electoral mortality would begin to treat Victorians very differently.
One of the many unknowns about the next state election is One Nation. Until recently, both Labor and the Liberals thought “Hanson can’t happen here”. But maybe she might.
Antony Green recently calculated that if current polling trends continue, One Nation would have some prospect of winning in 24 federal seats – three of which are in Victoria.
At the state level, on a rough approximation, a dozen seats might be within One Nation’s reach – seven Nationals-held, three ALP-held, and two Liberal-held.
Some have speculated a future Coalition government in Canberra might have three parties in it, not two.
This year’s Victorian state election will provide some indication of the chances of that occurring.
