“Australians are being left worse off as the latest ABS data confirm another calendar year record of net permanent and long-term arrivals, which means the ongoing out-of-control migration crisis shows no sign of ending,” said Dr Kevin You, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics updated its Overseas Arrivals and Departures database, with the reference period December 2025. IPA analysis of the data shows:
- Net permanent and long-term arrivals (people who have arrived in Australia with a declared intention to stay in the country for 12 months or longer) totalled 480,520 in 2025.
- This was the highest calendar year net permanent and long-term arrivals number on record, exceeding the previous record in 2023 by 7 per cent.
- Total gross permanent and long-term arrivals in 2025 were also the highest on record, at 1.15 million, exceeding the previous record in 2024 by 4 per cent.
“Do not be fooled by statistical jargon from those with a vested interest in ensuring high migration levels become permanent. Claims of net migration coming down does not mean that there are fewer migrants in the country. The number of migrants in Australia is still growing – and growing fast,” Dr You said.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals by calendar year
“The federal government’s half-hearted amendments to the nation’s visa rules have failed to deter a record-breaking number of people arriving in the country with the intention to migrate,” Dr You said.
“The blame for the problems caused by out-of-control mass-migration in recent years should be directed squarely at the federal government, not the migrants themselves. You cannot blame those wanting to come here to enjoy our way of life.”
The latest permanent and long-term arrivals and departures data follow earlier ABS data, which show that housing approvals collapsed by 15 per cent in December 2025, further demonstrating the federal government’s National Housing Accord as one of the greatest policy failures of the past 25 years.
“Australia has always been a welcoming country. However, a successful migration programme must be properly planned for, have the consent of the community, and be targeted toward areas of economic need. The federal government’s approach continues to fail on all three counts,” Dr You said.
“You do not need to be an economist to know that a flatlining housing supply and a large, migration-induced increase in housing demand results in higher rents, more expensive homes, and longer lines at rental inspections.”
To download the IPA’s previous research click here.
Note on methodology:
While ‘net permanent and long-term arrivals’ and ‘net overseas migration’ differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. The latter, in effect, is an adjustment to the former to incorporate the 12/16 rule, whereby an arrival counts as an overseas migrant arrival if the person stays in Australia for 12 of the following 16 months. Conversely, a departure is counted as a case of expatriation if the individual lives overseas for 12 of the following 16 months. Determination as to whether a person makes a permanent or long-term journey into Australia does not incorporate the 12/16 rule.
Since measuring net overseas migration lags behind permanent and long-term movement accounting, net permanent and long-term arrivals can act as a proxy to estimate net overseas migration. The Treasury’s Centre for Population noted, in its handbook, Fundamentals of migration in Australia, that permanent and long-term arrival and departure measures are “an early indicator of future migration flows”.
