Poll shock reveals migrants back big migration cut
A comprehensive new survey of attitudes towards migration reveals that while most Australians underestimate the current migration intake, they believe migration has been too high and support a significant reduction – a view shared by first generation migrants.
- 79 per cent of Australians want an annual migration intake of 100,000 or less (compared with average annual net overseas migration of 424,357 under the Albanese government).
This includes:
- 75 per cent of first-generation migrants,
- 74 per cent of non-citizens, and
- 72 per cent of those aged 18-to-24, as well as
- 73 per cent of Labor voters and
- 67 per cent of Greens voters.
- 60 per cent of Australians say there are too many migrants in Australia, while only 17 per cent think there are too few.
- This includes 59 per cent of first-generation migrants.
- 54 per cent of Australians say they no longer recognise the country they grew up in.
- This includes 86 per cent of One Nation voters, 57 per cent of Coalition voters, and 37 per cent of both Labor and Greens voters.
The survey, commissioned by the IPA and undertaken by Fox and Hedgehog, polled a nationally representative sample of 1,936 respondents between 24 and 27 February 2026 with a margin of error of 2.7 per cent.
The full survey can be found at the IPA website here.
Big government replacing the stagnant private sector
Since the year 2000, the public sector in Australia at all levels of government has steadily replaced the private sector in Australia’s economy.
New IPA research has found that the role of government in the economy has been expanding – in both real and comparative terms – with the trends particularly pronounced over the past decade.
- In 2000, government spending was roughly 21 per cent of Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP). It is now 29 per cent.
- In 2000, private investment and net export constituted roughly 28 per cent of GDP. It is now 20 per cent.
Figure 1: Government vs private investment and net exports as components of the Australian economy
The full IPA research note, Big government getting bigger as private sector stagnates, is available at the IPA website here.
How high inflation turns the capital gains ‘discount’ into a tax on investment
The capital gains tax ‘discount’ is not a discount at all in a higher inflation environment and can result in investors being taxed at rates exceeding 100 per cent on their real gains.
New IPA research has found that Australia’s CGT system, which applies a 50 per cent discount to nominal gains on assets held for longer than 12 months, can impose extremely high effective tax rates once inflation is properly accounted for.
- When inflation exceeds roughly half the nominal return on a CGT asset, the discount produces higher effective tax rates than a system which indexes the cost base of the asset to inflation.
- In a modern inflation scenario of 4 per cent per annum, even investment returns at 5 per cent would result in an effective tax rates on real gains approaching or exceeding 100 per cent, meaning investors are taxed on illusory gains.
- Reducing the CGT discount from 50 per cent to 33 per cent would significantly worsen these distortions, particularly in today’s stubbornly high inflation environment.
Taxing inflationary gains is economically irrational, discourages saving, distorts investment decisions, and undermines long term capital formation.
The full IPA working paper, Discount or Penalty? How high inflation turns the capital gains discount into a hidden tax on investment, is available at the IPA website here.
Decline: Australia’s economy in the 2020s
This new publication details 12 major economic metrics to demonstrate how Australia’s economy is performing in the 2020s, compared to previous decades.
While Australia is still “growing” on paper, this is principally due to a record migration intake to grow the population and government spending, while the engine of genuine economic growth – the private sector – has been undermined by excessive taxation and regulatory restrictions at all levels of government.
Decline: A Snapshot of the Australian Economy in the 2020s is available at the IPA website here.
