Analysis of potential job losses from the policy of net zero emissions by 2050

• The Coalition has everything to lose and nothing to gain politically from its commitment to the policy of net zero emissions by 2050.
• Up to 631,800 jobs across Australia will be put at risk by the policy of net zero emissions by 2050.
• The vast majority of those jobs are located in seats currently held by the Coalition.
  • 16 of the 20 seats with the most jobs at risk are held by the Coalition. This is down by just one seat from 2021, due to Andrew Gee, who holds the seat of Calare, defecting from the Nationals and continuing as an independent.
  • However, just one of the 20 seats with the fewest jobs at risk is held by the Coalition. This is down from 12 in 2021.
  • The Coalition no longer has a constituency among the communities least impacted by net zero, but continues to dominate the communities most impacted by net zero.
• Despite the Coalition pursuing a ‘teal strategy’ in both 2022 and 2025, by retaining and promoting its commitment to net zero, the Coalition has lost all teal seats (except for Goldstein, which is not among the 20 seats least impacted by net zero).
• Significantly, some 21 per cent of jobs – one in five, or a total of 13,440 jobs – in the electorate of Maranoa are at risk from net zero. This is the second most impacted seat, behind Flynn. This is because of Maranoa’s large agricultural sector, which is a high emitting industry.
• The electorate of Farrer has 13 per cent of jobs at risk, or a total of 9,550, which is 13th highest out of 150 electorates.
• Across all federal electorates, the Coalition has an average of 9.2 per cent of all jobs at risk. This is more than double the next highest average share of 3.6 per cent among independent seats (which has been inflated by the previously-Coalition seat of Calare), followed by Labor with 3.2 per cent and the Greens with 2.8 per cent.

Figure 1: The 20 electorates with most jobs at risk from net zero – percentage of jobs at risk as share of workforce

Figure 2: The 20 electorates with fewest jobs at risk from net zero – percentage of jobs at risk as share of workforce