Chris Smith:
Paul, I appreciate that. I want to go to the IPA senior fellow and chief economist, Adam Creighton, who’s also a columnist with the Australian newspaper. He’s on the line right now. Adam, did you see the blast off?
Adam Creighton:
Yes, look, I certainly did. If you’re referring to the Alba address.
Chris Smith:
No, I meant the Artemis II launch.
Adam Creighton:
All channels, 7PM, 9, 7, ABC. It was like some sort of communist regime. The order had gone out. Everyone must hear.
Chris Smith:
That’s incredibly free publicity. So, you’ve got to give it to the likes of Paul Erickson, the ALP mastermind, who conjured up this national address, and we all waited with bated breath for this historic moment. Hasn’t happened in six years in this country. And he just rewrote the press conference he delivered on Monday.
Adam Creighton:
Yes. I know. It’s very embarrassing and disappointing. I mean, it makes a mockery of the gravity of the situation. I mean, as you know and your listeners know, there was no real meat to the announcement. It was just a political statement. He wanted as many people as possible to hear that he was briefly cutting the fuel excise. That was it. There was no recognition of the structural problems Australia faces with fuel, our shipping problems, our defence problems, the likelihood of rationing in the near future.
Chris Smith:
Or the fact that we…
Adam Creighton:
It was an embarrassment. And of course, he’s following up today with a one-hour address at the Press Club-
Chris Smith:
Exactly.
Adam Creighton:
… saying the same thing again.
Chris Smith:
He’ll repeat it all over again at the Press Club. Now, you’re right there. Why wouldn’t we hear something about, “Listen, we don’t want the excise cut to infect inflation. So, what we’re going to do, we’re going to cut back on the HECS policy we announced just before the election.” Or, “We’re going to stop renewable energy zones for 12 months.” Or, even better, how about we stop spending like crazy folk?
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. That’s…
Chris Smith:
And maybe that’s a way of making it costed.
Adam Creighton:
That’s exactly right. I mean, this is going to be, I think, two and a half to $3 billion, the cost of it to the government in forgone revenue. And as you say, there are going to be no offsetting cuts. I mean, there was some nonsense about the upcoming budget being full of ambition, but the only ambition is going to be more spending. And probably more tax increases, increases in capital gains tax, other taxes we don’t know about yet, taxes on gas. It’s a very depressing situation we’re in. There’s nothing there that’s going to improve the economy, improve our productivity, improve our living standards. I think Greg Sherrin got it right when he said it was almost a Day Medner type address.
Barry Humphreys could have written it as a mockery of Australian mediocrity. And as you say, it hasn’t happened for six years. So, when it does happen, and there must be some law or something that requires media to broadcast that, it should be used sparingly and it was used for a political address.
Chris Smith:
A political address without questions being taken and a freebie given to the ALP via all radio and all television stations.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, exactly.
Chris Smith:
I thought too, it was grossly condescending in tone-
Adam Creighton:
Exactly.
Chris Smith:
… as if we were kindergarten kids.
Adam Creighton:
I mean, telling people that we need to exercise common sense, I mean, how embarrassing. I mean, everyone already knew all the things he said. And as for exercising common sense, that’s an insult. It’s perfectly rational, as I think I’ve said before, to hoard and to get as much petrol as you can when the government only has 25 days of it. I mean, that’s not irrational behaviour. It is common sense from the perspective of the individual. If they had have had the 90 days, there’d be a far different response from people. They wouldn’t be as freaked out. So, this is the government’s fault. And then he had the goal to say something about the free market’s fault.
I mean, no one ever said it was the free market’s responsibility for a nation to secure fuel suppliers. Obviously, that’s not the role of the free market. Government does have some things it should do. And one of them is that, especially being an island nation far away without our own oil and fuel supplies, that’s not a free market issue. So, the absolute goal, really.
Chris Smith:
Spot on. Jenny has phoned through from Maury, wanted to comment on the speech last night. Go ahead, Jenny.
Jenny:
Hi, how are you?
Chris Smith:
Good, thank you.
Jenny:
That’s good. I’m not a real political person, and I’m only 74 years of age, so I’m not that old.
Chris Smith:
No, you’re very young.
Jenny:
I felt sorry. I feel sorry for the Prime Minister that he is so pathetic. I know he’s a pathetic little creature, but he just made such a fool of himself last night.
Chris Smith:
In what way with what he didn’t say, or with the way he said it?
Jenny:
Both. Actually what you said, both, both.
Chris Smith:
It was such a condescending tone. They should have pulled him up and said, “We might want to record that again, PM.”
Jenny:
Yeah, he didn’t say anything about anything. And his voice is just, as you said, he spoke to us like we were kindergarten kids.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. I appreciate your call, Jenny. Thank you. There you go, Adam. And I think that’s universally received the same way.
Adam Creighton:
Yes. Look, it certainly is. And you mentioned Paul Erickson, someone mentioned Paul Erickson. Look, I mean, I think tactically they think this is some sort of big win, but I think strategically for the Labour Party and for the Prime Minister, this is not a win. I think it’s going to undermine the respect of voters for him. I think it was a mistake actually, even politically.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. I spoke to someone about it last night and I said it’s a little bit like a newspaper or a radio station or a television station saying, “I’ve got a bombshell story to tell you about and it’s a rehash of something we read a week ago.”
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, that’s exactly right. I actually watched it with some other journalists and we’re all joking what the top line of the story would be. It’s just nothing. And I think they’re struggling this morning. And look, it’s received universal combination from the Greens to One Nation. I mean, I think they’re all correct. It was pathetic. Anyway, we’re going to hear the press club speech today, and I assume that will be the same.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. All right. Now, there’s a GST meeting going on as we speak between states and territories about what they should do with this additional GST they’re reaping from the extra prices we’re paying in petrol. What do you think we should do with the extra GST?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, the GST will automatically go to the states. I mean, that’s what’s happened since 2000, according to an extremely complicated formula that tries to equalise the capacities of the states. And that’s really the issue here. Of course, the states will just spend the money. I mean, they’re even more fiscally irresponsible than the federal government at the moment. It’s worth pointing out that it’s right to focus on the $1 trillion debt in the federal government, but let’s not forget the 700 billion of the states, the six states that’s often overlooked and their recklessness is at least as bad as the federal government. And it’s a real structural problem for the country.
And the reason is, Dan Andrews, I think discovered, he was the trendsetter, he realised that the debt of the states is ultimately the responsibility of the federal government. And so, they couldn’t care less. If you look at the rates of interest the states pay on their debt, it’s basically the same as the Commonwealth’s government. So, there’s no discipline being exercised from the financial markets because those people lending to the states know full well that ultimately it’s Canberra’s responsibility. And this is a big problem for Australia. I think Mike Bair just recently spoke out about it, the former Premier of New South Wales. It’s a serious structural problem.
And I don’t know whether they’re going to have to revive some sort of loans council type institution. So, the federal government can have some control over what they’re borrowing, but it really is out of control. So, the GST is just part of a bigger problem of state recklessness.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. I want to pick up from an article that appeared in the Australian today, not written by you, written by Tom Switzer, who I enjoy reading and who’s a mate of mine. And he wrote about Donald Trump and he wrote about the fact that he loves America except he regards Trump’s performance as detestable. What are your thoughts about what he wrote?
Adam Creighton:
Yes. Well, look, I read the same column. It’s very well written. Tom’s a friend of mine as well. He’s very thoughtful and intelligent. And look, I have to say he made some very good points. I don’t think Trump is detestable. I still think overall, he’s a force for good in the world, but I must say the focus of the column, the attack on Iran, he makes a lot of good points. It’s not really bearing out very well, as much positive spin as the US tries to put on it. I mean, they’re in a very difficult situation. Their regime is still there. They still have firepower. They’re holding the world hostage now.
All of this was very predictable from the start and the rest of the world is really paying the consequences from what seems to be a very ill thought out plan to attack a very big and powerful country. I mean, this is not Iraq with 20 million people. This is three times the size of Iraq with 90 million people. It has a very large army. It’s far more sophisticated. It’s got cells in other countries. I mean, it’s not taking on a small country. And remember there’s some talk of sending 20,000 troops or something. I mean, remember Germany in the Second World War needed one and a half million troops to subdue Poland, and that was right next door.
I mean, the idea that you can control Iran with 20,000 troops on the other side of the world, I think is pretty fanciful.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. On top of that, I get the feeling with what he’s done this week, which has wiped his hands of responsibility with the Strait of Hormuz and saying to NATO and his allies who didn’t support him, allegedly, saying to them, “You go and sort out your problems with the Strait. You go there and send ships to try and get your own oil.” I don’t know whether that is him in a revengeful way hitting back at NATO, because they didn’t help the United States and the UK didn’t help with allowing use of some of their bases, or he knows it’s an impossibility to safely control the Strait of Hormuz without being bombed and missiled and droned, and so he’s given up, put his hands up, and blame the rest of the world.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. Look, I think it’s a bit of both. I mean, if there’s any silver lining to all this, I think if it’s the end of NATO, I wouldn’t be too upset with that. I don’t think it’s overall a positive really. So, it may fall apart and the Europeans may have to look after themselves more. But yeah, I think it’s very petulant to say that because no one else had a vote in this war and everyone else is definitely paying the cost. Look, there’s some good news. I noticed this morning petrol seems to be Brent Crude fell a bit overnight, so I think there’s creeping optimism that maybe it’s going to end soon. And certainly, Trump is going to declare victory either way. I mean, he already has.
So, I think what we want is some face-saving way for Trump to extricate himself and for Iran to stop holding the world hostage with the straits. But let’s hope that happens, but it’s very hard to see that happening next week.
Chris Smith:
Very true. Adam, you enjoy your Easter break and thank you very much for your time today.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, thanks very much, Chris. You too.
Chris Smith:
All the very best. Columnist with the Australian newspaper, a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs and Chief Economist there as well, Adam Creighton.
This transcript of Adam Creighton on Mornings with Chris Smith from 2 April 2026 has been edited for clarity.
