The Great Covid Debt Refinancing Cliff

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  • State governments have been overwhelmingly responsible for the increase in public debt since the Covid pandemic, increasing their combined net debt by $270.4 billion – more than four times as much as the federal government ($64.8 billion) – over the last six years.
  • States’ share of total net debt across both levels of government has steadily risen to 68 per cent this year, quadruple the share in 2016.
  • States have more than $226 billion worth of bonds outstanding that were issued at exceptionally low interest rates during the Covid pandemic. This ‘cheap Covid debt’ will begin to mature from 2030 when borrowing costs are likely to be well over double their pandemic level.
  • After 2030, the four most indebted states (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia) face a Covid debt refinancing cliff, whereby annual interest costs will increase cumulatively by $8.1 billion – a 25 per cent increase from their budgeted 2030 interest costs.

Adam Creighton

Adam Creighton is a Senior Fellow and Chief Economist at the Institute of Public Affairs
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