“Australia’s record migration intake continues, despite government promises to meaningfully cut back, which is placing immense pressure on our economic and social infrastructure,” said Daniel Wild, Deputy Executive Director at the Institute of Public Affairs.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for June 2025, released today, shows:
- Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the year-to-June 2025 (1 January to 30 June) were 279,460 – the highest on record, exceeding the previous record in 2024.
- Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the financial year ending 2025, at 457,560, was the second highest on record, just short of 2023-24’s record number of 469,140.
- The federal budget’s FY25 forecast for net overseas migration (335,000) has been exceeded by 122,560 (37 per cent).
“Excessive migration has pummelled Australia’s economic productivity, which led to an extended period of negative per capita economic growth. It is also exacerbating a housing crisis that is being experienced by Australians and new migrants alike,” Mr Wild said.
“Over the last 25 years, Australia’s population growth has exceeded the population growth of comparable Anglophone nations, namely: New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States,” Mr Wild said.
Population growth in Australia since 2000 was 43 per cent, higher than comparable countries of New Zealand (+38 per cent), Canada (+35 per cent), the United States (+21 per cent), and the United Kingdom (+18 per cent).
“Net overseas migration has contributed to about 80 per cent of Australia’s overall population growth since the end of the pandemic, dwarfing the share of natural population increase. This is unsustainable,” Mr Wild said.
While ‘net permanent and long-term arrivals’ (NPLT) and ‘net overseas migration’ (NOM) differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. NOM, in effect, is an adjustment to NPLT to incorporate the 12/16 rule, whereby an arrival counts as an overseas migrant arrival if they stayed in Australia for 12 of the last 16 months. Conversely, a departure is counted as emigration (or expatriation) subsequent to the individual living overseas for 12 of the last 16 months.
Determination as to whether a person makes a permanent or long-term journey into Australia does not incorporate the 12/16 rule. Since NOM necessarily lags behind NPLT, NPLT can act as a proxy to estimate NOM.
Last week, the federal housing minister downgraded the government’s commitment to its National Housing Accord, referring to it as a “national aspiration”. This confirmed IPA analysis showing it was nowhere near on track to meet the target of 1.2 million new homes built between 2024 and 2029.
“The federal government has not taken its foot off the migration accelerator, while at the same time acknowledging they will not be able to build the houses needed to accommodate a rising population,” Mr Wild said.
“Australia is a welcoming society, but the nation’s migration program must be properly planned, have the consent of the community, and not strain critical social infrastructure.”
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