“The Crisafulli government may have inherited a shambolic set of financial accounts, however, unless drastic action is taken today, it risks becoming the Victoria of the North as the nation’s most recklessly managed state,” said Adam Creighton, Chief Economist at the Institute of Public Affairs.
IPA analysis the 2025-26 Queensland budget handed down by the Crisafulli government today has found:
- Gross debt is set to almost double, from $106.4 billion in 2024 to $205.7 in 2029. This is worse than projected under the Miles Labor government.
- Net debt is projected to increase by 231 per cent, from $45.3 billion to $150.3 billion in the same period. This is worse than projected under the Miles Labor government.
- Despite healthy operating cash flow projected over the forward estimates, the purchase of non-financial assets is set to put the Queensland budget into a structural cash deficit, with an accumulative general government cash deficit of $82.6 billion, and an accumulative non-financial public sector cash deficit of $107.6 billion from 2024 to 2029.
- Announced housing policies, including encouraging Queenslanders to buy a home with as little as a 2 per cent deposit, will only stoke demand and does little to increase supply.
“Treasurer Janetzki has the unenviable task of repairing Queensland’s state budget given the worse than expected fiscal position the Crisafulli government inherited. Unfortunately, this budget does not adequately begin this process of budget repair,” Mr Creighton said.
“Given the shocking increase in debt, a further credit rating downgrade, to AA from AA+, appears almost inevitable”
Previous research by the IPA revealed that Queensland had experienced a decade of structural decline financially, economically, in law and order, and in the delivery of public services.
“For all the debt and deficit spending under the premiership of Palaszczuk and Miles, the lived experience of Queenslanders did not improve,” Mr Creighton said.
“Over the past decade violent crime in Queensland increased by 45 per cent, frontline police numbers fell, and in health, emergency patients seen on time declined by 16 per cent.”
The housing policies announced in this budget do not sufficiently address the supply side of the housing crisis facing the state of Queensland, which is facing a demand surge due to uncontrolled migration levels.
“Allowing homebuyers to put down a 2 per cent home deposit is only going to drive up demand for housing, which is already under stress due to record levels of migration,” Mr Creighton said.
“IPA analysis has shown Queensland experienced a shortfall of 48,737 homes between 2022 and 2024, the second highest in the nation. The state government need to cut more red tape, like they did with the CFMEU tax, if they are to open up housing supply and address housing shortfalls.”
To download the IPA’s previous research click here.
