Analysis Of Regional Population, Migration, And Housing Data

Written by: and
31 March 2024
Analysis Of Regional Population, Migration, And Housing Data - Featured image

Institute of Public Affairs analysis of regional population data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today reveal that in the 2023 financial year, demand for housing from net overseas migration alone exceeded the net new supply of housing nationwide.

Nationwide housing supply data is provided by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’s (NHFIC) State of the Housing Report in 2023. The IPA previously conducted an analysis of mass migration and housing supply in June 2023.

Based on the NHFIC State of the Housing Report 2022-23 report, along with historical dwellings data by the ABS, we are able to estimate net new housing supply at the ‘statistical area level 4’ (SA4) which is a geographical statistical unit commonly used by the ABS. The housing estimates can be compared to the regional population data, which breaks down population change at the SA4 level by different components, including the effect of net overseas migration (NOM) on SA4 level population counts.
The analysis shows the following nationwide for financial year 2022-23:

  • Net new housing supply was 148,600.
  • Net overseas migration to Australia in 2022-23 was 528,392.
  • This means there were almost 380,000 more migrants than houses built last financial year.
  • Even accounting for the average household size of 2.5 people per house, the demand for housing generated by NOM was 211,357. This is some 62,757 more than the number of houses built.

In terms of the shortfall by the 88 SA4 local areas: 

  • 78 out of the 88 SA4 local areas (89%) across Australia had fewer new houses built than number of migrants which entered.
  • Every Sydney metropolitan SA4 local area had more migrants than houses.
  • Every single QLD SA4 local area had more migrants than houses.
  • Every Melbourne metro SA4 local area had more migrants than houses.
  • Every WA SA4 local area had more migrants than houses.
  • Every SA metro SA4 local area had more migrants than houses.

On a state-by-state comparison

  • NSW: 38,900 houses built; 177,140 migrants entered; 138,240 more migrants than houses built.
  • QLD: 31,501 houses built; 85002 migrants entered; 53,501 more migrants than house built.
  • SA: 8,402 houses built; 28,335 migrants entered; 19,933 more migrants than houses built.
  • Tas: 3,299 houses built; 4,408 migrants entered; 1,109 more migrants than houses built.
  • Vic: 49,901 houses built; 157,220 migrants entered; 107,319 more migrants than houses built.
  • WA: 11,602 houses built; 64,255 migrants entered; 52,653 more migrant than houses built.

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