Poll: Victorian Treaty

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  • A majority of Victorians oppose a treaty between the Victorian Government and Victorian Aboriginal groups.
    • In a forced-choice scenario, 52% of Victorians oppose a treaty, while 48% support. This closely resembles the 2023 Voice referendum, where 54% of Victorians opposed the Voice, while 46% supported. When Victorians are given the option to remain undecided, 37% of Victorians support a treaty between the state and Aboriginal groups, 42% oppose, and 21% are unsure.
    • The demographic groups that support and oppose treaty reflect the same polling trends of supporters and opponents of the 2023 referendum. Around four in five voters hold the same view on treaty as they did on the Voice, indicating stable underlying attitudes.
    • Support for treaty declines from 48% to 40% when respondents are informed of the likely outcomes of a treaty. Opposition commensurately rises from 52% to 60%.
    • When shown the Statewide Treaty Bill 2025’s definition of treaty, support falls slightly further to 39%, and opposition rises to 61%.
    • Just over half of Victorians oppose ‘Gellung Warl’ being independent from the direction or control of the Victorian Government, with the remaining respondents evenly split between supporting its independence, and being undecided.

Margaret Chambers

Margaret Chambers is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
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