James Macpherson:
Joining me to discuss this is adjunct fellow with the Institute for Public Affairs and former Deputy Secretary for Strategy with the Defence Department, Peter Jennings. Peter, thanks for joining me. We’ll get to Iran’s retaliation shortly, but with the confirmation now that the Ayatollah is dead, what leadership vacuum does that leave? And is there an obvious succession plan within Iran?
Peter Jennings:
The Ayatollah, I believe, nominated something like four levels down of people that could replace him and other key figures in the national security apparatus. And it’s not just him that’s been killed. There’s apparently a number of others that were hidden. Same initial strike. I think there are clearly alternate leaders that will come into play. And I think an interesting thing to watch for, James, is sooner or later, it may all be the case that a general emerges from the Revolutionary Guard to say, “I’m in charge now.” And what is the United States and Israel going to do at that point? Will they begin to hold talks with that person? My guess would be probably not. I think what we’re going to see over the next few days is continued strikes, which is going to focus on taking out more senior leaders in the political system, but also in the security and military apparatus.
At the same time, as Trump prosecutes his other objectives, destroy the Iranian Navy so they can’t go and mine the Straits of Hormuz, destroy their missile making capability, go and make sure that they’ve done as much as they can to destroy the nuclear capability. I think we’re going to see military operations for a while. And then the issue will be, does it look as though there is a possibility of the Iranian people to wiping the remaining theocratic leadership off the agenda? And what does the Americans do when they get to that point?
James Macpherson:
If we are going to see an uprising, as you just mentioned, what are the chances of its success? You might’ve heard my previous two guests saying they really believe this is a time that local Iranians will embrace. But Trump doesn’t want to put boots on the ground to help. As I said, what’s the likelihood that a grassroots rebellion against the authorities will actually succeed?
Peter Jennings:
I think we’re beginning to see it now. The Iranians are not doing what Trump suggested. He suggested stay indoors for a few days while the bombs are dropping, but they appear to be out in the streets right now. I think the psychological impact of killing Ayatollah Khamenei can’t be underestimated. That now does wipe out a critically symbolic figure for the regime. It may well be now that we’re going to see an overwhelming response from the Iranian people. That’s what it’s going to take, James. If it doesn’t happen now, I can’t imagine when it will. And I’m sure that a significant portion of the Israeli and American strikes is going to do damage to those intelligence and security apparatus, which would prevent that popular uprising. This is, I think, the crucial 48 hours. We’ll see if the Iranian people are able to take this into their own hands, in which case the regime could collapse yet very, very quickly from this point.
James Macpherson:
The IDF have just released vision of them striking targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime. I think we’ve got some vision of that that we can show. There you go. That’s, as I said, vision just released by the IDF. With Iran threatening that they will save their better and more deadly weapons until later on, how seriously do you take that threat? It seems to me that if you knew you were going to be attacked by the US, you would retaliate with your best stuff first, not hold it back. Do you believe the Iranians, when they say they’ve got strong weapons ready to go, or are they bluffing?
Peter Jennings:
I think there’s a strong element of bluff in this, which is not to say that they don’t have missiles which they can launch. They do have sophisticated missiles, which can reach well into all parts of Israel and do serious damage. But so far, what we’ve seen has been a fairly weak response, just weak in terms of numbers, which have not been very successful, James. I think what that tells me is that their command and control system has broken down so that they’re not really capable at this point of mounting stronger opposition. We’re also not seeing the proxy groups with maybe the exception of the Houthis becoming more active. It’s possible that what we have here is a house of cards that’s going to fall very quickly. I don’t think I can make that judgement just yet that that is what’s going to happen, but it seems to me the next 48 hours will answer that question.
James Macpherson:
It’s also worth noting the level of infiltration by Mossad. Not only were they able to hit the Ayatollah with a pinpoint strike, but agents on the ground got photos of the Ayatollah’s body before the Iranians could announce it. Trump had seen it, Netanyahu had seen it. That tells you something incredible about Israel’s level of infiltration into the Iranian regime.
Peter Jennings:
Yes. Never pick an argument with Mossad, James, would be my view. But they have obviously incredibly good intelligence. I would imagine that a lot of that is coming from human intelligence. That’s to say people that they have been able to cultivate and bring onside, perhaps working with some of the minority ethnic communities that exist inside Iran. But I think Israel has had an awful lot to do with defining the target set and knowing where the senior leaders are at the right moment. They will continue to work their way through that list of leadership now. No one filling interim jobs in Tehran should feel comfortable. I think this just does reflect that for Israel, in particular, Iran has been the number one intelligence target for decades, and it’s paying off. It’s really paying off with the accuracy of these strikes.
James Macpherson:
Peter, apparently there’s a joke going around Israel that the Iranian regime is now being run by three Mossad agents. It’s just that they don’t know about each other, but it’s as soon as they find out, the whole thing will end. Peter Jennings, I really appreciate you coming on the programme. Thanks so much for your time tonight.
This transcript of Peter Jennings on The Macpherson Angle Sky News Australia from 1 March 2026 has been edited for clarity.
