Gabriella Power:
Joining us now is Morgan Beg, Director of Research at the Institute of Public Affairs. Morgan Begg, thank you so much for your time. I want to ask you about Marco Rubio and JD Vance because Marco Rubio’s 2028 presidential odds have hit a new all time high following reports that Republican donors have signalled that they prefer him over JD.
So according to reports, Donald Trump has been informally polling of his circle of friends and his advisors about the 2028 election. And just looking at the betting markets, we’ve got Rubio sitting at around 14%, JD Vance at 21%, so still higher. But look, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Donald Trump giving a bit more support to Rubio. We just keep seeing him play a crucial role in the war right now with Iran, in the action in Venezuela. And you can see Donald Trump really has a lot of confidence in him.
What are your thoughts?
Morgan Begg:
Yeah, I think that’s a fair assessment. It is interesting that in this term, the foreign policy agenda has been such a major focus of the Trump administration. And as a consequence, Rubio’s really sort of taking on a leading role in a lot of these issues. So it’s not surprising that his numbers are improving. But it’s quite an extraordinary story of Rubio’s political resuscitation.
It was only a few years ago that Rubio would’ve been regarded as being closer to the mainstream than the MAGA base, and he was deemed to have soft views on immigration of all things. And so if … Part of this story is based on a poll of a room of Trump’s friends. So how much you can extrapolate from that, I’m not sure. But the betting markets are certainly showing that there is some interest in the idea that Rubio could become the standard bearer for Trump 2.0.
Gabriella Power:
Yeah. We’ll watch this space very closely. Now, as this conflict in Iran has been going on for 12 days now, the leftist media and the Democrats have been complaining about it every step of the way. I mean, we’ve heard from Democrats saying the US is going to fail, et cetera. What about The View hosts, the hosts of The View? This is what Whoopi Goldberg had to say. This is her
Whoopi Goldberg:
It’s just nutty as hell. It’s nutty as hell. Yeah. And you’re right, every day is something new. And I was thinking about it yesterday because I thought, well, okay, why haven’t we been talking about Savannah Guthrie and what’s going on there? Why have we not been talking about the Epstein files because that’s still there? This is meant to get us so worked up that we are unable to see anything else.
Gabriella Power:
Oh, they are onto something. Aren’t they spot on? I mean, this is probably also all to do with distracting from the Epstein files. I mean, these women are absolutely crazy, but here’s Joy Behar’s take.
Joy Behar:
I feel like we’re living in the reign of terror. Am I the only one here to remember the French Revolution? I mean, I really feel like every day I wake up and he has created more chaos, more misery around the world, that the economy is going down the toilet. Gas prices are going through the roof. World economies are suffering. And we’re in the middle of this, and I feel like we’re pretty much helpless to do anything because the Republican Party will not stand up to this fall. That’s all.
Gabriella Power:
What are your thoughts on that assessment? I mean, is it just me or are they getting crazier?
Morgan Begg:
Well, it’s interesting. I think the view is sort of like the main vehicle now for Trump arrangement syndrome. And it’s hard to pick which one’s worse between Joy and Whoopi. And it would be comforting to say that, well, at least no, I don’t think anyone watches The View anymore. So there’s always that. But in terms of what Joy Behar is saying, it actually, it does illustrate a growing concern that I have, which is this prevalence of violent rhetoric in many parts of the political left now.
Last year, Rutgers University put out a poll which found that 55% of those on the political left would find Trump’s assassination at least somewhat justified. And then of course, there was the reaction to Charlie Kirk’s assassination late last year. So it’s hard not to be concerned that these crazy views that are sort of being laundered through places like The view are actually becoming more tolerated amongst what is the base of the left in America.
Gabriella Power:
And we keep seeing that and it’s pretty sick. This week in New York City, two men, allegedly inspired by ISIS, attempted to throw homemade bombs at a crowd of conservatives in New York City. The media lied about it constantly. We’ve been covering that on Power Hour this week. Mamdani as well was more than happy to call out white supremacy that he seemed to have noticed, but not the suspects that were allegedly inspired by ISIS and throwing homemade bombs. Here is mayor of New York City’s, Zohran Mamdani being asked about ISIS. Take a listen.
Reporter:
Given that both of the alleged attackers at Gracie said they were inspired by ISIS and given New York City’s sort of perennial status as a soft target, I was wondering if you had any words of advice to any young people who might find themselves being drawn to that particular ideology.
Zohran Mamdani:
I think first and foremost, just to make it clear to everyone that extremism and hatred of any kind will not be tolerated in our city, and that is regardless of whatever ideology motivates any person to commit an act of violence. There is no tolerance for it here. What we want to deliver to New Yorkers is a city that is safe, is a city that believes in the values where everyone who calls it home is considered to be a part of it. There is no tolerance for any kind of violence within that vision of our city or the way in which we lead this city.
Gabriella Power:
I mean, it’s just interesting listening to him there. He can’t call it out directly. He just has to use vague terms of any kind.
Morgan Begg:
Yeah, exactly. And I mean, there’s no shortage of political leaders in the West who will turn a blind eye to the problem of Islamist violence. But what Mamdani’s engaging in here and has been engaging in the past few days is like an inversion of reality. And I’ve even seen some major media outlets in the US characterise what happened as, or implied that it was actually an attack on Mamdani from the supposedly white supremacist protestors.
And I think people are just so frustrated with this reflexive both sidesism. Actually, there was a very specific incident here, an attack here from one side onto another side, and it’s okay to acknowledge that. And people understand that it’s okay to acknowledge that. And it just reflects this, I think, this bifurcation of reality. Me and you, we exist in the real world and we can see what’s happening, but Mamdani lives in this constructed reality where it seems like the problem is always only ever white supremacy. So of course, his reflexive response is to say, “Well, no, no, no, that we don’t support hatred or violence of any kind no matter what side it. ” And then pivots the conversation to white supremacy. It’s madness.
Gabriella Power:
It is madness and language is so important. And I think if he can call out white supremacy, he needs to call out all groups, but he refuses to. We just keep seeing that. We saw it in his tweet. We see it in his press conference.
Morgan Begg:
It’s the only ideology he will name.
Gabriella Power:
Exactly. Absolutely right. Let’s talk about more of the Democrats. A new NBC news poll has highlighted just how unpopular the Democratic Party brand has become with voters. The party posted a net favorability of minus 22, placing it near the bottom of the rankings. The only thing to overtake them really was the Iranian regime, which ranked lower with a net rating of minus 53. That says a fair bit, doesn’t it?
Morgan Begg:
Oh, yeah. There is clearly no love for the Democrats in America. And I think that the previous story about Mamdani sort of encapsulates why that is. So much of the woke fixations is housed within the Democratic Party. And they’ve turned away mainstream Americans and they’ve turned away their mainstream concerns, and they’re focused on these really niche issues and they’ve isolated the majority of people. And it’s actually what has enabled this political realignment to take place, which Trump has taken advantage of, which is happening in other countries as well. The more woke labour in the UK goes, the stronger reform and Nigel Farage get. And it’s a question, is that on the cards for Australia as well? If Albanese keeps going woke, who benefits from that?
Gabriella Power:
On Australia, Matt Canavan has been elected as the leader of the National Party, securing the top job following the shock resignation of David Littleproud. Here is Matt Canavan today.
Matt Canavan:
We have been blessed as a nation, absolutely blessed, kissed with blessings with the resources we have, the land we have, the great people we have, and we don’t really need to look overseas for those solutions. We have everything we need here, and we’re just not exploiting it. We’re not using it. We’re locking it up, making it too hard for business in this country, and that leads us to having to import everything.
Gabriella Power:
And Matt Canavan also declared his support for income splitting as a way to create a tax system that encourages parental bonds rather than a reliance on childcare. What’s your assessment here?
Morgan Begg:
I think this is a great outcome for the National Party, to be honest. And how refreshing is it to hear a political leader speak plainly and honestly about the problems in our country at the moment? And also, probably the first serious politician I’ve ever heard give attention to the issue of family policy. Traditionally, governments really only talk about family policy in the context of how many subsidies it can give to the childcare sector.
And Mr. Canavan is actually talking, well, actually, what do families want? And a lot of families want to be able to look after their own children, but they’re actually denied that choice because of the economic factors, which are on the one hand, deterring family foundation in the first place. And then for those that do form families are pretty much coerced or forced to be a two income household and they have to use the childcare system. And a lot of families actually don’t want that. And so to hear a political party leader today actually talk about that and give it the attention it deserves, I think it’s a massive boon for the Nationals.
Gabriella Power:
Completely agree with you. We’ve also heard from former Prime Minister John Howard speaking about Matt Canavan. Let’s take a listen.
John Howard:
He’s got views and he’s not afraid to express them, and he argues his case very well. And the greatest craft that a successful politician can have is to be a persuasive presenter, and he does that.
Gabriella Power:
John Howard. Of course, this week’s Sky News political contributor, Chris Uhlmann, reflected on the legacy of John Howard’s being Australia’s second-longest serving prime minister in a documentary. And I think many Australians just really missed the stability of the Howard era.
Morgan Begg:
Yes. No, absolutely right. One of the things I remember from the Howard era most is just the cultural self-confidence we had as a country. All of the markers of national identity were never more secure than they were under the Howard era. And one of his most interesting speeches, I think before he became Prime Minister was his ambition for Australia was to be comfortable and relaxed about its culture and its place in the world and its way of life.
And that is probably one of his great achievements is that he actually accomplished that. People loved being a part of Australia and they weren’t ashamed of it anymore. And to have married that legacy also with economic confidence as well and fiscal restraint. One of the tragedies now is that he left the country with a bipartisan consensus on the idea of fiscal constraint, and that has been lost and we should all be very sad. But we should always look back on the lessons of the Howard era because he has so much to teach.
Gabriella Power:
Morgan Begg, the director of research at the Institute of Public Affairs. Thank you so much for your time. Always great to speak with you. Thanks again.
Morgan Begg:
Thank you.
This transcript of Morgan Begg on Power Hour Sky News Australia from 11 March 2026 has been edited for clarity.
