This article was originally published in Australian Financial Review on or about 12 December 2025 and was written by the author in their capacity as a contributor for that publication.
It has been republished on the IPA website with permission. The views expressed are those of the author alone.
The Liberals’ problems go beyond their leadership. Getting a popular leader won’t be enough.
Politics The Australian Election Study found that the party’s traditional advantage has evaporated, making it nearly impossible for it to win a federal election.
Since 1987, after every federal election, a group of university academics have run a survey of voters. The Australian Election Study is an invaluable dataset about 14 elections and nearly 40 years of national politics.
The study is funded by the Australian Research Council, and if taxpayers are to fund university research, the study is the sort of research that deserves to be financed. In its latest round of grants, the council allocated $1.3 million for a project to improve the environmental understanding of whale watching.
The analysis of the Australian Election Study for the 2025 poll from researchers at the Australian National University and Griffith University shows how the world of politics and the media is changing.
As recently as 1987, 52 per cent of people followed politics on television, and 33 per cent read about it in newspapers. In 2025, 22 per cent followed politics on television, 10 per cent through newspapers, and 32 per cent through the internet and social media.
The study also demolishes some of the myths that have already grown up around the 2025 election. Anthony Albanese’s landslide victory wasn’t the product of Labor’s political genius. To repeat a phrase, a drover’s dog would have beaten the Coalition.
The answers of the 2070 respondents in the survey reveal that Peter Dutton was deeply unpopular and the Coalition’s policies, such as they were, were regarded by voters as largely irrelevant to their day-to-day concerns.
Dutton’s unpopularity was off the scale. Of the 15 Coalition and Labor leaders to have faced the electorate since 1987, Dutton was by far the least popular. Further, Labor voters liked Albanese much more than Liberals voters liked Dutton.
The extent to which a party’s policies influence views of its leader is unclear, but as the study notes: ‘‘Governments are increasingly referred to by the leader’s name, rather than the party’s name. The media focuses attention on leaders during the campaign. Parties use leaders to communicate their policies and appeal to voters.”
The Liberals’ problems go beyond their leadership. Getting a popular leader won’t be enough. At the federal level, the Liberal Party has no political brand to speak of.
Traditionally, the Liberals have been regarded as better economic managers, but that’s no longer the case.
The study shows that while the cost of living was the number one concern for families, and voters were pessimistic about the direction of the economy, the ALP was the party trusted to deal with these challenges.
One conclusion from this is that it is difficult to see how, in the current economic environment, a party promising lower taxes and smaller government can win a national election.
The change in community attitudes to, for example, tax is demonstrated by comparing the replies to a question in 1998 and then in 2022 (when it was last asked). In response to the statement ‘‘High tax makes people unwilling to work”, in 1998, 76 per cent agreed, and 10 per cent disagreed. In 2022, 48 per cent agreed, and 25 per cent disagreed.
The study proves wrong the claim that under Dutton, the Liberal Party became ‘‘too right-wing” to be electable. Respondents were asked to rate their perception of the parties on a scale of zero to 10, where zero was the most left-wing and 10 was the most right-wing. The public perception of the ALP is that it has become more left-wing over time. In 2001, the Labor Party was scored at 4.7 and in 2025, it was scored at 3.9. The Greens currently score 2.6, compared to 3.7 in 2001. The Nationals’ current score of 6.3 is identical to where it was 25 years ago.
The picture for the Liberals is very different. The Liberal Party is regarded as having changed – by shifting to the left. In 2004 its ‘‘right-wing” score peaked at 7.0. In 2025, the Liberals’ score was 6.2 – exactly the same as in 2022, while in 2019 it was 6.5. The only people who think that the Liberal Party has swung to the right in recent years are members of the Canberra press gallery. Which wouldn’t be the first time the media is out of step with mainstream opinion.
“The Liberals’ problems go beyond their leadership. Getting a popular leader won’t be enough.”
