Rita Panahi:
Joining me now is Deputy Executive Director at the Institute of Public Affairs, Daniel Wile. Dan, this is a historic moment. We’re on the brink of liberating 92 million Iranians and removing from the world a dangerous Islamist threat.
Daniel Wild:
Yeah, that’s right, Rita. A very significant development and also highly a surprise. Trump and the Trump administration had made it very clear that they weren’t going to tolerate a nuclear enabled Iran because of the threat that it poses to the region and also to the US’s own national security. So not so much of a surprise there. I think the big question is what comes next? Once the Americans stop launching missiles, who will fill the leadership vacuum? What will be the setup thereafter? Because as you know, when there’s a power concentrated in one individual person, when that person is removed, then it is always a scramble as to who’s going to take over from there. But certainly a very significant and historical moment. And we wait to see what the plan is for what comes after the removal of the Ayatollah.
Rita Panahi:
Now, you might mistake the Iranian state TV we just played for our own ABC. They seem to be similarly devastated by the US-Israeli operation. Let’s look at what John Lyons had to say about Donald Trump.
John Lyons:
My main impression listening to that is that’s Israel’s agenda. That’s Israel’s talking points, not the United States. That same president said that he obliterated Iran’s nuclear programme in June, July last year. If they obliterated it then, why is it an imminent threat now? Two weeks ago, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, came to Washington with several points beyond the nuclear deal. One of them was ballistic missiles and one of them was Iran’s proxies through the region. That’s what I’m hearing there now. That speech could have been written and delivered by Benjamin Netanyahu. That is completely different from what Donald Trump’s been saying. Only yesterday he said, “We are negotiating.”
Rita Panahi:
Dan, I don’t even know where to start with that. Of course, Donald Trump said he was negotiating. He’s hardly going to be announcing an imminent attack. And this attack quite clearly has been planned for months.
Daniel Wild:
Yeah, I think that’s right, Rita. Why would the president telegraph to the world that what his plans are in relation to that? Look, I think politically, this is also going to be very interesting because there are those on the left who will criticise this intervention on certain grounds and those on the right who will criticise it. I mean, don’t forget, a fair trunk of the MAGA voters were voting against the so called forever wars. And so it’ll be interesting to see how Trump sort of plays this. Now, I don’t think that the intention here is to do what the Bush administration tried to do in Iraq, which was after they got rid of Saddam Hussein, they basically went on a project to try to build democracy and set up Democratic institutions in Iraq, which failed and probably was always going to fail. So I don’t suspect Trump will go down that path.
But look, I think the key question here is, if you want to talk about the domestic politics in the US as they head to the midterms, is it going to be basically take out the leadership, take out their nuclear capabilities and get out of there, or is there going to be an intention to leave some kind of peacekeeping force to set up what comes next in Iran? So I think it’s quite unclear at this stage as to how that plays out.
Rita Panahi:
Well, I’ll be speaking to Army Horowitz about that a little bit later in the programme, but I think it’s the former. I don’t think the Trump administration or the Republicans in general have any appetite to be having forces on the ground in any sort of capacity, let alone long-term capacity. So it’s up to the Iranians now to reclaim their country and set about deciding whether they want to be a monarchy, whether they want to be a Republic, how they’re going to hold elections. This is something that I think is going to be left to the Iranian people. Now we have seen celebrations around the world, and let’s start in Iran. Dan, clearly those people don’t know that Penny Wong has called for deescalation, and let’s hear what our foreign minister had to say.
Penny Wong:
We do not want to see this escalate into a wider regional conflict. We continue to urge the protection of civilian life, and as others have, we seek the resumption of dialogue and diplomacy.
Rita Panahi:
Dan, what’s your response to that? I thought Anthony Albanese put out a statement that was pretty strong. It was sound. And then we have the foreign minister delivering that.
Daniel Wild:
Well, it’s a bit late for deescalation. I mean, the missiles have gone in, so she’s a day late and a dollar short on that one. Look, I think that it’s interesting to see that there looks to be a bit of a divide within the government. I think that those such as Penny Wong have often taken an anti-US stance pretty much on any matter, especially so in relation to Donald Trump being president. So I think no matter what Trump will do as president, I’m pretty sure Penny Wong and those on that side of Labour Party will probably oppose it. But I think the issue here is, well, as I’ve said before, what comes next and what is Australia’s role in that? So if we’re able to offer something constructive, then we should. But in terms of calling for calm and deescalation, sure. I mean, everybody wants to have calm, but how relevant is it at this point?
Rita Panahi:
Well, it’s not only irrelevant, it’s idiotic, Dan. We are on the verge of seeing the regime toppled. Why would you deescalate now? You’ve sent 200 jets up into the air, hit 500 targets almost at once, and now you want to deescalate. That’s what her suggestion is. I mean, no wonder she’s not taken seriously on the global stage with commentary and advice like that. It’s quite stunning. Let’s go back to the real world and have a look at crowds of Iranians and supporters of freedom, gathering in capital cities across the world and celebrating the downfall of this regime.
Crowd:
*foreign language*
Social Media Account:
*foreign language*
Rita Panahi:
People overcome with joy there. And in the US, Iranian immigrants expressed their gratitude to President Trump and thanked him for his fierce support for freedom in Iran. Have a look.
Journalist:
What brought you here?
WoMan 1:
To thank President Trump. 47 years of this tyranny. I’ve been coming to this federal building since the 1980s. Since the Islamic Republic of Iran has been in power. They’re the most barbaric terrorist organisation in the entire world. With them gone, the world will be a better place.
Man 1:
It’s time for the Iranian people to go to where they’re supposed to go, to really free themselves from this darkness. The world is going to be in a better place. Thank you, President Trump. Thank you, Israel.
Rita Panahi:
But the regime is not done yet, is it, Dan? It’s on its knees, but it is still a long way from confidently saying this Islamist reign over Iran that has lasted 47 years is finished.
Daniel Wild:
Well, that’s right. It’s not as simple as getting rid of one person. And I think pre 1979, the Iranian regime was obviously much freer and much more pro Western. And so if it’s able to return to something of that nature, that would be welcomed. But there is a very in depth power structure that exists. There’s also the army. I mean, who’s going to take control is the big question. So as I mentioned before, there’s always a power vacuum when the person at the top is removed. I’m just not too sure what comes next and sometimes what comes next is worse than what was there before. So I just think that the big question is what will the involvement of the US be from here on out and how embedded and ingrained is that Iranian regime? The other point is it’s good to call upon the Iranians to take their future into their own hands, but the question that I have is what capacity do they have to actually do that?
They’re not living in a democracy, so there’s not going to be elections. They’re not going to be able to vote, I assume. So do they take to the streets? What is the actual mechanism to get regime change happening? So I think the next period of time is obviously going to be a lot of uncertainty about how that eventuates.
Rita Panahi:
Well, Donald Trump has told the members of the regime, the military, the military police to stand down or to face the consequences. He’s given them an ultimatum to either stop fighting or to be eliminated. But I think it’s going to be that simple as far as the Iranian people are concerned because even if those people stop fighting, they have already slaughtered so many. There is already such bad blood with what these Islamists have done to the country. And sadly, I think that… Well, not sadly, perhaps, but there will be a reckoning. And I think it’s going to be a period of conflict before the country settles down, hopefully into a democracy. Now, let’s go to the UK briefly. There were celebrations there, of course, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer was mocked and branded a word that rhymes with banker after he was quick to clarify that the UK had nothing to do with the offensive against Iran.
Crowd:
Keir Starmer’s a wanker. Keir Starmer’s a wanker. Keir Starmer’s a wanker.
Rita Panahi:
Dan, Keir Starmer’s weakness has been pretty humiliating for the UK. Pretty evident that he played no part in this. The UK is not even a big player in this operation, but let’s come back to Australia and have a look at large crowds celebrating and the Iranian people love to dance.
Crowd:
*foreign language*
Rita Panahi:
But Dan, we also have mourning for the late Supreme Leader. A number of mosques are having prayers for the fallen dictator. Among them is the Alzara Centre in Melbourne, which said in a notice promoting a mourning ceremony. “We offer our condolences and congratulations to the presence of Imam Mahdi. May our souls be sacrificed for him. He, Islamic Ummah, the esteemed religious authorities and scholars, and the great nation of Iran on the honourable martyrdom of the pious scholar, the foremost matter of the Islamic Revolution and the rightful deputy of the Imam of the Age Ayatollah Khomeini in the blessed month of Ramadan.” Dan, that is a worry. I won’t offer more commentary than that, but that sort of statement fills me with dread.
Daniel Wild:
Yeah. And we sort of saw this on the march that was taken on Sydney Harbour, where you had some who are holding up pictures of the Ayatollah. So I think it gets to this point where we have this sectarianism that’s been imported into our country. I find it interesting that there are people of Iranian descent who are happy with the outcome, people who are unhappy with the outcome. And I think most Australians look at it and they go, “Well, how does this affect me? How does this affect Australia?” And so it’s really interesting to see because I think most people feel a bit alienated from this. And of course everybody has a right to voice their opinions on matters pertaining to foreign affairs, but it does seem that there are cohorts in our country that still seem more interested and exercised about what’s happening in the Middle East than what’s happening in our own streets and our own backyard.
And this is also going to be an issue for the government because I assume a lot of those who are unhappy with the US intervention are probably going to be in Labour seats. And so it wouldn’t surprise me if you see some sort of speaking out both sides of their mouths when it comes to how the government tries to message this domestically.
Rita Panahi:
Well, I’ll be talking a little bit later about the unholy alliance between Islamists and the left, and Iran is a very good lesson there for the West in what can happen. So I’ll speak to Amy Horowitz about that shortly. Dan Wild, thank you so much for your time.
This transcript of Daniel Wild on The Rita Panahi Show Sky News Australia from 2 March 2026 has been edited for clarity.
