Rita Panahi:
Joining me now is senior fellow and chief economist at the Institute of Public Affairs, Adam Creighton, and Sky News contributor, Louise Roberts. Louise, this dramatic search for supporting One Nation is enduring. Last year, the party attracted just 6.4% of the vote at the federal election. Now it’s out-polling the Coalition in every poll. And now in this poll equal with Labour.
Louise Roberts:
That’s right. And Labor’s decline I think here is entirely self-inflicted. This is people suffering with cost of living crisis and extra pressure. Obviously, a lot of that’s been exacerbated by the war in Iran. But still we don’t feel that the Labour government on a federal level is actually doing anything to alleviate that for us. And the Coalition is a bit still MIA. They don’t offer a compelling alternative. They offer sort of One Nation lie when it comes to talking about immigration. So it’s really no surprise that the people… I don’t think they’re even sort of drifting to One Nation, I think they’re actually actively choosing it. And when you talk about those rural and regional and older voters, they should be heartland Labour people. And they’re eyeing up one nation saying, “You are the viable alternative to us.”
And the other thing I thought was interesting in that data was that something over 60% of people can’t afford to pay for healthcare. Which is really alarming because what you would have then in particularly I think in regional and rural areas, is people weighing off the cost of a monthly shop for groceries, like farmers who go to the grocery store once a month and really bulk by, as opposed to thinking, “Well, I might drive two hours to go and get an MRI, but I can’t afford the petrol and I can’t afford the scan.” And that will have a catastrophic effect on health of people in that age group, and then working backwards to younger people as well.
Rita Panahi:
It’s pretty grim. Adam, if you’ve got people that can’t pay for healthcare costs. And if they’re leaving the private system, that’s just going to put extra pressure on the public system. And we’re talking about more interest rate increases coming up this year. They’re talking about three to four when households are already hurting.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, certainly. Look, there’s no surprise. There’s a surge in support for One Nation and massive dissatisfaction with the two major parties. I mean, I note from the poll there you just quoted, I know there’s a lot of disquiet amongst the Coalition. Obviously they’re not doing so well. But if you add up the left wing vote, if you like, 27% for Labour, 14% for the Greens, that’s only 41%, I believe. So basically the right vote, if you like, is very large. And so I think Labour could actually lose the federal election on those numbers.
Rita Panahi:
Only if the right organise and have some sort of a preference deal, have some sort of a plan to actually utilise that support. Because right now there’s really no preference discipline on the right like there is on the left.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, that’s true. There is no preference discipline. But I think people overegg the split the vote argument, because we do have a preference system. And sure, if it was the UK or something, it would be a disaster. It really does split the vote. But here there are preferences and it will flow back to the right or the left in the end. I mean, from the right, left, it’s kind of academic, whether it’s One Nation or whether it’s Liberal or whatever it is, it’s the right. So that’s what’s probably going to happen. So I think it’s good news I think overall. And I think the Labour Party’s been out there saying, “It’s not hurting our primary vote.” Well, it certainly is.
Rita Panahi:
Absolutely.
Adam Creighton:
I think last election, 33%, 34% they got, now 27%, that’s a very big fall. And you can say the South Australian result I think was probably the low point for One Nation, given it’s the most popular Labour government in the country. Victoria is going to be fascinating here. We’ve got extremely unpopular government going to the polls.
Rita Panahi:
It is going to be fascinating. That was November, the poll here in Victoria. But before that, we’ve got a by-election in Farrer. And a poll conducted by Ucoms has One Nation leading the race for what was once the safest of coalition ceased. One Nation candidate, David Farley, leads independent Michelle Milthorpe on the two party preferred there on 52.7% to 47.3%. Adam, this by-election has come about thanks to Susan Lee’s retirement. It’s going to be mighty embarrassing for the Coalition if they come in third or fourth year, which is a real… In fact, it’s probably the most likely scenario.
Adam Creighton:
It is. Look, it’s hardly a parting gift, is it? But look, again, I still think it’s good news for forces of the right. And this poll, I’ll note, was commissioned by the teals, so it’s hardly biassed.
Rita Panahi:
Excellent. Thank you, teals for spending the money.
Adam Creighton:
She wouldn’t have liked the results. So thanks, Simon. Thanks for that pot. So look, I think it looks like on those numbers that it’s going to be a One Nation seat, right? That’s going to actually… Of course they’re going to terrify them.
Rita Panahi:
Unless the teals find some more money to throw her at that by-election, which they probably will.
Adam Creighton:
They could, but I just don’t think it’s going to go up with the teals. That’s my bet.
Rita Panahi:
Well, it is such a conservative seat, Louise. It would be strange for it to go to the teals, who I know represent themselves as a Liberal alternative, but really they’re somewhere in between the Greens and Labour. Now the Guardian is reporting that Liberals and Nationals will be preferencing One Nation ahead of Michelle Milthorpe. How do you see this race?
Louise Roberts:
Well, it’s interesting because although it’s a good result for One Nation, I still think Michelle Milthorpe is a bit of a dark horse. Because she is, I would say, is the momentum candidate. I mean, she’s gone up something like 6.7 points, hasn’t she? So her support is growing faster than One Nation, even though One Nation overall are the top pick. So yeah, I mean, you’re absolutely right. It is a conservative electorate. I mean, if you travel out to the regions which I’ve been doing, then you see that people, they feel One Nation speaks to them. They feel abandoned by the Coalition. And they’re not too sure about an independent candidate, I think, on a federal level. So as Adam says, it should be a shoe-in to an extent for One Nation.
Rita Panahi:
Now let’s hear from Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan who appeared on ABC Radio here in Melbourne. And listen to her take on One Nation. She’s not just dismissive, she has profound contempt for the party.
Jacinta Allan:
Now we’ve got Pauline Hanson flying into Victoria with her particular brand of division and extremism that the Liberal Party are now chasing after.
Rita Panahi:
Adam, Jacinta Allan seems to think it’s, I don’t know, 1999, calling One Nation extremists. Who’s buying that other than the ABC audience these days?
Adam Creighton:
Well look, I think it’s fantastic for One Nation that she’s out saying these things. She obviously didn’t get the memo from Federal Labour, because I think a few months ago they were, actually less, they leaked their polling strategy and they said, “Do not mock the leader. Do not mock Pauline Hanson personally. Don’t call her divisive, don’t call her racist. Don’t call those things because it just gives her more support.” So thank you, Jacinta Allan, for this strategy. Hopefully she keeps that up until the election.
Rita Panahi:
What a shock, Louise. Jacinta Allan isn’t across the detail, not even the Labour briefing notes. Do you think that argument can still carry some weight, to say that if you’re contemplating backing One Nation, you’re backing a divisive, extremist political party? Or have people stop listening to that sort of rhetoric?
Louise Roberts:
I think people have stopped listening to it because Jacinta making that sort of comment is almost like a basket of deplorable Hillary Clinton style thing, isn’t it? That’s the space she’s now moving herself into, which is a bit tragic and a bit wrong really. But I mean, insulting the electorate in that way when they’re probably looking at her saying, “Your government is absolutely hopeless and debt ridden, so why should we actually take any guidance from you in who we should vote for?” It’s clear that she’s not across the detail, as you say.
Rita Panahi:
No, I mean, when you are leading a government, which has got the biggest debt in the country, the biggest of any state by some margin, I don’t know, perhaps shush and concentrate on your own knitting.
Adam Creighton:
Just on the accusation of extremism too. I mean, it’s the Labour Party that’s running 350,000 migration a year. It’s One Nation that set 140,000, which is what it used to be 20 years ago-
Rita Panahi:
And talk about divisive-
Adam Creighton:
… so isn’t that more centrist?
Rita Panahi:
… and you want to talk about divisive, Jacinta Allan leads the party that has given us an indigenous voice that we never voted for-
Adam Creighton:
Exactly.
Rita Panahi:
… and even a treaty. So you want to talk about racially divisive, she’s enshrined that in Victoria. Now, before you two go, I want to get your opinion on this analysis by the Australian newspaper, which shows the scale of the federal government’s debt crisis as a result of the country’s lacklustre productivity growth. The RBA has estimated the productivity growth in Australia will be just 0.6% over the next 18 months. Louise, last month, the treasurer announced that the assumption of 1.2% is not going to be reached until 2030. It’s a delay of four years.
Louise Roberts:
Yes. So another budget blunder, I would argue, for us, and when everyone’s struggling with cost living, as we said. And interesting that story said that 70% of Australians are worried about this climbing debt mountain. I would put it more like 100% really. I think everyone is concerned about it because they see this spend, spend, spend mindset. I mean, obviously today we’ve had claims they’re going to cut the NDIS spend. Whether that will actually fix the hole is anyone’s clue. But yeah, there’s very little confidence, I think, in the productivity. We’ve got low productivity. We don’t make enough money as a country and we’re still spending like we’re some sort of lottery crazed lunatics. So it’s not a good position to be in, particularly with the May budget coming down anytime soon.
Rita Panahi:
And this government, economically illiterate, it really is. I mean, you look at the measures that they’re trying to leak to the media, halving the capital gains tax discount-
Adam Creighton:
Savings. Savings.
Rita Panahi:
… savings, or reducing it anyhow. And just all sorts of measures that are not only going to not increase productivity, that could possibly be counterproductive.
Adam Creighton:
Look, certainly that’s true. No surprise that productivity is sagging, because pretty much all the jobs growth is in the government sector. Whether it’s the official sector or the non-official sector, NDIS, I mean, it’s all government work. And these are famously unproductive sectors. So of course that’s the case. I mean, yeah, that’s certainly true about the government in general. I mean, it’s the worst government since the Whitlam government, I think by far, and probably worse actually. I mean, Whitlam actually did some good things on tariffs. I can’t think of one good thing that this government’s done on the economic front.
Rita Panahi:
Adam Creighton and Louise Roberts, thank you for your time.
This transcript of Adam Creighton on the The Rita Panahi Show Sky News Australia from 22 April 2026 has been edited for clarity.
