“With the latest data showing almost a hundred thousand net permanent and long-term overseas arrivals to Australia in February alone, the need for reform to Australia’s broken migration system could not be clearer or more urgent,” said Dr Kevin You, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) updated its Overseas Arrivals and Departures data series, with the reference period February 2026. IPA analysis of the data shows net permanent and long-term arrivals in February 2026 were 96,110:
- In the twelve months to February 2026, net permanent and long-term arrivals were close to half a million, at 478,910. This was the third consecutive year-to-February in which net arrivals exceeded 400,000 – and the second highest on record after 2024.
- Since July 2025 – the beginning of the 2026 financial year – net permanent and long-term arrivals had been 354,440.
- In contrast, the 2026 federal budget forecasts net overseas migration for the full financial year to be 260,000.
- Total gross permanent and long-term arrivals were the highest on record in the twelve months to February for 2026, at 1.15 million.
“The data throws cold water on the idea that the federal government has migration under control. Month-after-month, the overseas-born population of the country is rising in significant and unprecedented numbers.”
Chart: Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the 12 months to February (Source: IPA, ABS)
“The federal government’s half-hearted tinkering of visa rules has failed to deter a continuous wave of would-be migrants who intend to stay in Australia for the next twelve months or more,” said Dr You.
Federal opposition leader Angus Taylor highlighted IPA research on the attitudes of Australians towards immigration in his address to the Menzies Research Centre in Sydney on 14 April 2026, which revealed 59 per cent of first-generation migrants believe there are too many migrants in Australia.
“The fact that long term overseas arrivals are still alarmingly high, despite repeated government promises to reduce migration, shows how broken Australia’s migration system is and why comprehensive reform is required,” said Dr You.
“The federal opposition’s first tranche of migration policy reform is a step in the right direction and, importantly, was a clear acknowledgement that the system won’t be fixed at the margins but needs to be addressed in a meaningful way.”
“The Australian way of life is the envy of the world. But Australia’s migration programme must be planned for, have the consent of the community, and be targeted toward areas of economic need. The federal government has failed on all three counts.”
Related IPA research can be found here.
Note on research methodology:
While ‘net permanent and long-term arrivals’ and ‘net overseas migration’ differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. The latter, in effect, is an adjustment to the former to incorporate the 12/16 rule, whereby an arrival counts as an overseas migrant arrival if the person stays in Australia for 12 of the following 16 months.
Conversely, a departure is counted as a case of expatriation if the individual departs to live overseas for 12 of the following 16 months. Determination as to whether a person makes a permanent or long-term journey to Australia does not incorporate this 12/16 rule.
Since measuring net overseas migration lags behind permanent and long-term movement accounting, net permanent and long-term arrivals can act as a proxy to estimate overseas migration. The Treasury’s Centre for Population noted, in its handbook, Fundamentals of Migration in Australia, that permanent and long-term arrivals and departures are an early indicator of future migration flows.
