“On Budget eve, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed net overseas arrivals and departures has again accelerated, despite government promises to cut,” said Dr Kevin You, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) updated its Overseas Arrivals and Departures data series, with the reference period March 2026. IPA analysis of the data shows:
- Net permanent and long-term arrivals in March 2026 were 40,400, the second highest on record.
- In the twelve months to March 2026, net permanent and long-term arrivals were close to half a million, at 486,300.
- Gross permanent and long-term arrivals in the twelve months to March 2026 was 1.16 million, the highest twelve months to March gross arrivals on record.
“Migration intake is out of control. The migration system is broken. And quibbling about which statistical measure should be used to count migration flow – and how long we should wait for which data to analyse – only distracts from the substantive issue that mass migration has continued,” said Dr You.
“All eyes are now on the federal budget to see whether the Albanese government is serious about cutting migration back to sustainable level and stabilising the size of Australia’s migrant population, which currently stands at roughly nine million people,” said Dr You.
Chart: Net permanent and long-term arrivals in March by year
“The federal government has failed Australians on migration, housing availability, and housing affordability, with the latest official data once again showing the government is just not serious about fixing the problem.”
Data from SQM Research for the month of March 2026 showed that the national residential vacancy rate fell to just one per cent.
“Australia is a tolerant and welcoming country. And migration has and will continue to be a part of our national story and identity. But Australia’s migration programme must be planned for, have the consent of the community, and be targeted toward areas of economic need. The federal government has failed on all three counts. And we need to stop and do a stocktake before resuming our migration programme,” said Dr You.
Related IPA research can be found here.
Note on research methodology:
While ‘net permanent and long-term arrivals’ and ‘net overseas migration’ differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. The latter, in effect, is an adjustment to the former to incorporate the 12/16 rule, whereby an arrival counts as an overseas migrant arrival if the person stays in Australia for 12 of the following 16 months.
Conversely, a departure is counted as a case of expatriation if the individual departs to live overseas for 12 of the following 16 months. Determination as to whether a person makes a permanent or long-term journey to Australia does not incorporate this 12/16 rule.
Since measuring net overseas migration lags permanent and long-term movement accounting, net permanent and long-term arrivals can act as a proxy to estimate overseas migration. The Treasury’s Centre for Population noted, in its handbook, Fundamentals of Migration in Australia, that permanent and long-term arrivals and departures are an early indicator of future migration flows.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals data do not overestimate migration numbers resulting from people taking multiple trips. This is because repeat ‘arrival’ trips are cancelled out by repeat ‘departure’ trips.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals measures intake less departures. Gross measures only intake.
