Modelling by free market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs has revealed that a total of 696,000 jobs will be destroyed in Victoria as a result of lockdown measures, from March to November 2020.
The analysis is based on jobs and wages data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
There are currently 3.3 million Victorians who are employed, meaning that total incurred and expected job losses under the lockdowns are equivalent to 21% of the Victorian workforce.
The IPA estimates that Daniel Andrews’ Roadmap, scheduled to be in place from 14 September to 23 November, will destroy 260,000 jobs. It is estimated that some 432,000 jobs have already been destroyed since lockdowns began on 14 March, and a further 4,000 jobs will be destroyed over the next week before the Roadmap takes place.
“Daniel Andrews is crushing jobs, small business, and the spirit of mainstream Victorians with continued lockdown measures. He has disfigured Victoria with more lockdowns to deal with the second wave unleashed by his catastrophic ineptitude with hotel quarantine and contact tracing,” said Cian Hussey, Research Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs
“Daniel Andrews may claim otherwise, but he is now pursuing a reckless approach of virus elimination. But zero COVID cases means zero jobs, zero freedom, and zero hope. We need to learn to live with the virus, rather than go into continual lockdowns.”
“Virus elimination is not a strategy, but a dangerous utopian theory never attained anywhere in the world promulgated by the political class and elites whose jobs aren’t on the line.”
“Work is the centre of everything that matters in life. It provides dignity and allows for home-ownership and for people to take care of their families and communities. By destroying Victorian’s jobs Daniel Andrews is destroying their humanity.”
“Mainstream Victorians in small businesses, the self-employed, and those in the productive, private parts of the economy are getting smashed while public servants and bureaucrats have never been wealthier,” said Mr Hussey.
These calculations are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia; Labour Force, Australia, Detailed – Electronic Delivery, Mar 2020; and Data by Region, 2014-19.
The estimate of jobs lost to date under the lockdowns is based on the following calculation:
The Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia data between 14 March and 1 August, prior to stage 4, shows a net 273,500 jobs lost over this period.
To date, only one week of data regarding the impact of Stage 4 is available from the ABS (which is the week of 3 August). In this week, an average of 3,869 jobs were destroyed each day.
Extrapolating this daily job destruction under the first week of Stage 4 for the entire Stage 4 period up until 13 September, which is when the new measures come into place, provides for a total of 162,500 jobs destroyed.
This provides an estimate of 436,000 jobs destroyed from 14 March to 13 September.
The estimate of job losses from 14 September to 23 November is based on the following:
It is assumed that the period of 14 September to 26 October will have a similar impact as the Stage 4 restrictions where 3,869 jobs were destroyed each day. This gives a total of 162,500 jobs destroyed over this period. This similar impact is based on the fact that the first step of the plan (between 14 September and 28 September) is almost identical to the current 4 four restrictions, and the second step (between 29 September and 26 October) is categorically similar to stage 4 restrictions where there is a nightly curfew, people cannot travel more than 5km from their home, people can only leave their home once per day for essential reasons, and most businesses remain closed.
It is assumed that the period of 27 October to 23 November will have a similar impact to the second introduction of the Stage 3 restrictions which were in place from 9 July to 2 August where 3,611 destroyed each day. This gives a total of 97,500 jobs destroyed over this period. The impact of this third step (from 27 October to 23 November) is expected to be similar to Stage 3 as the restrictions are categorically similar to the previous Stage 3 restrictions, for example there is no longer a nightly curfew, no longer a restriction on how far people can travel from their home, and there is limited scope for businesses to reopen, such as private property inspections and dining at cafes.
Hence, from 14 September to 23 November it is estimated that 260,000 jobs will be destroyed.