Steve Price:
Look, I want to return to the unfolding story that is Iran. Now, we don’t really know as much detail as we’d like to about what is unfolding there. What we do know is thousands and thousands and thousands of Iranians are taking to the streets daily in protest against the despotic regime that’s ruled that country since 1979. We have seen some pictures showing hundreds of bodies in the street. We can only presume that they are being killed by their own government. Peter Jennings is adjunct fellow at the Institute for Public Affairs, and, of course, Sky regular and former Deputy Secretary for Strategy in the Defence Department.
I want to pick your brain, Peter, on Iran. We’ll get to Donald Trump and what he might or might not be able to do in a moment, but this is a very difficult regime to unseat, I’m getting a sense of.
Peter Jennings:
Yes, they’ve been able to step down or beat down threats to the regime over many years, including in 2019 and 2022. These protests are a little different though, Steve. They’re much more widespread. They do seem to have led to significant number of deaths, which tells me that there’s more numbers of people on the streets protesting. There has been, I believe, a bit of a lull in protests in the last few days. So that could mean the security forces are now on top of the problem, or it could mean that we’ve just seen a pause.
I think something that’s true here is that the regime is on a slow slide out, and it might happen this week, it might happen in 6 months or 12 months, but it’s very hard for me to see how they can rescue their possession here to get back to a point where there won’t be protests in the streets.
And so this really is a pretty crucial tipping point right now. And I wouldn’t rule out that, notwithstanding the repressive nature of the secret police and other forces, that maybe there’s going to be just enough momentum for popular resistance to rise up and push the mullahs out.
Steve Price:
If you had to assess how popular this movement is, we’ve seen populist movements around the world forever overthrow unpopular regimes, but are there significant numbers of Iranians who actually don’t mine the regime and are happy to live under them?
Peter Jennings:
I think they’ve been prepared to tolerate the regime since 1979 for as long as there was food on the table and career opportunities. Increasingly though, that’s what’s now in question, power cuts, food and fuel shortages. The regime has run its course, and I think that now reflects the increasing anger that we see on the streets. And you can only get by with repression for so long before those factors become, I think, overwhelming.
So it’s in its end of days. So what I can’t tell you, Steve, is if it’s this week or sometime in 2026, but I don’t think it’s got the capacity to bring back the economy. And I think that’s going to be the key driver in terms of whether the Iranians in the street will be prepared to tolerate the kind of repression which they’ve had from their government for so many years.
Steve Price:
Yeah. Well, Peter, they’re talking the economy, the currency’s now collapsed. Let’s talk about Donald Trump. I mean, we’ve seen just last week where American forces were able to go into Venezuela. They snatched Maduro and his wife. Still extraordinary exactly how they did that. We’re told that they had a lifelike construction of where Maduro was. They practised for month after month after month. We can only presume that when Donald Trump says, “Well, you better stop killing your own people or I’m going to intervene.” What’s the reality of what he could actually do?
Peter Jennings:
Well, there’s one country that will have those walkthrough models of how the senior leaders live in Tehran, and that’s Israel. And people are talking about Israel very much now. They will have the right target set to be able to know how to go after the key elements of repression of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the internal Security Police. They went after a significant number of those in the so called Twelve-Day War. So I would love to know just what’s happening behind the scenes in terms of Israel talking to the United States.
I think it would be possible, if the Trump regime is minded to do so, to engage in military strikes, which would decapitate a senior part of the military and strategic leadership which is now conducting repression against the Iranian people. But as with Trump’s late involvement in the Twelve-Day War, I don’t think we’ll see that unless he has come to the view that the regime is on its last legs, in which case he’ll be prepared to deliver the final push. So that’s something to watch for.
And I think we need to look at all the groups around the borders, many of whom are now working very hard, including the Kurds, to push back against the Iranian regime. It’s different this time, Steve. This is not just uprisings in the major urban centres that can be put down quickly. This is different, and that’s what leads me to think that the regime is now in trouble. And if Trump works according to his record, that might be precisely the moment when he decides to intervene, by taking out some key leaders and really then saying to the protesters, “Okay, well, go for it. Now’s your opportunity.”
Steve Price:
Yeah. Well, we’ll wait and see. It’s history unfolding in front of our very eyes. Peter Jennings, always a pleasure to catch you.
This transcript of Peter Jennings on The Bolt Report – Sky News Australia from 14 January 2026 has been edited for clarity.
