Natarsha Belling:
Welcome back. As we reported earlier today, Pauline Hanson’s popularity is continuing to surge with a new poll out today placing her as the preferred prime minister ahead of Anthony Albanese. The surprise result coming on the day that David Littleproud will be challenged for the leadership of the National Party. Joining us now with his analysis is Adam Creighton from the Institute of Public Affairs in Melbourne. Adam, thanks so much for your time on a huge day in Australian politics yet again.
Adam Creighton:
Indeed.
Natarsha Belling:
Let’s start with this latest poll. We know polls can be wrong. We’ve seen that before. But let’s start with this continuing support for One Nation and, of course, the leader Pauline Hanson. We know Barnaby Joyce is defected. What’s behind this surge in support for One Nation, do you believe?
Adam Creighton:
Well, I think it’s frustration with the two major parties that they’re not talking about the issues that Australians want to hear about, which is immigration, which is housing, which is NSC policy. And they are turning… It’s a break glass moment, if you like, for Australian voters. They are extremely frustrated. And now we’re seeing poll support, 26% for One Nation, 30%. So they are the second force now in Australian politics, and they could well be, I think, at the next election, the major opposition party.
Natarsha Belling:
Do you think they have any policies though that will actually deliver results for so many Australians that are struggling right now?
Adam Creighton:
Well, I do, because they have a formulated immigration policy. As I understand it, they very much oppose net zero, which would bring down power prices, bring down the cost of living crisis. People know that. They know Pauline. She’s been around for 30 years. She’s been one of the most consistent figures in Australian politics. She’s probably the most famous politician in Australia. And so they know what she stands for and they’re starting to agree with her views. Because I think the tragedy at Bondi last year brought into sharp relief for a lot of Australians that social cohesion in this country is falling apart. And she’s been associated with that view for a very long time.
And at the same time, we’ve still got rising inflation, so people’s wages are falling, so they’re grumpy and frustrated about that. And they’re also down about the direction of the country. So it’s not a surprise to me that you’ve had this political earthquake where you’ve had one, once a small party with 5% of the vote basically grow to 25% in such a short period of time.
Natarsha Belling:
Adam, let’s turn to the coalition now. Because a lot of people are saying the fact that we don’t have an effective opposition is bad for democracy overall. In regards to what’s happening with the split, the divorce between the coalition, do you think the Liberal Party is done and dusted?
Adam Creighton:
Look, it well could be. I mean, I don’t shed any tears for the formal coalition. That’s very much an inside the beltway issue. I think all the parties need to sort themselves out. And the best way to do that is to break up and to take a step back and say, “What do we actually stand for?” I think with the Liberal Party in particular, they’re really struggling to know what they stand for. I think the Nats have stood ground. They actually kept all their seats at the last election. But of course, the Nats too would be very worried about One Nation. I think they are dumping the Libs to show their voters, “Hey, we’re not all mushy and basically labour-lite like the Liberal Party. We’re different.”
So I think it’s healthy for both parties to break apart for time. The election’s still two years away. They can have various formulations and agreements as the election approaches. But because of our preferential voting system too, it doesn’t matter. They can all run candidates against each other if they like. It doesn’t split the vote, so to speak, like it would in the UK or the US. We have a different voting system. So my view is, let them argue, let them debate. Let’s have a Liberal Party candidate. Let’s have a National Party candidate. Let’s have a One Nation candidate.
Natarsha Belling:
In regards to you mentioned before, there’s a lot of expectations, speculation. We will see an increase in interest rates. We know there is a cost of living crisis. Many Australians are doing it incredibly tough right now. And we know the Prime Minister was under a lot of pressure before the divorce of the coalition. Do you think he would be an incredibly happy Prime Minister right now because the attention is on the debacle that is the coalition right now?
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, certainly. I think he’d be happy about that. But I mean, I wouldn’t want to overstate that. The reality is, the Reserve Bank is probably going to lift rates very soon, and probably twice, because the increase in inflation is so embarrassing. That’s now the highest rate of inflation in the entire OECD at 3.8%. And of course, that means everyone’s purchasing power is going down 4% year after year. So people will be very angry about that. But yeah, sure, for the next four, five, six weeks, basically until the leadership of the Liberal Party is resolved, and that’s probably going to be sooner rather than later, I think that he does get a bit of a free pass from the very bad economic story that the opposition is not really telling at the moment.
Natarsha Belling:
Interesting to see how it all plays out. We appreciate your analysis. Thanks so much, Adam, for joining us this afternoon.
Adam Creighton:
Thanks very much.
This transcript of Adam Creighton speaking on Seven Noon News Seven Melbourne from 2 February 2026 has been edited for clarity.
