Gabriella Power:
Joining us now is chief economist at the Institute of Public Affairs, Adam Creighton.
Adam, thank you so much for joining us. Let’s start with what is happening in the UK. Hundreds of protestors gathered in Portsmouth on Sunday night after around 140 migrants in a single dinghy arrived. And it seems that legal migrants are now just taking longer journeys to get to the UK, and locals there are pretty furious about this.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. Look, I’m surprised it’s only hundreds of protestors and not thousands of protestors. I mean, the numbers that we’re talking about here are just extraordinary. I mean, the worst I think Australia had in terms of boat people back in 2012 was about 16,000 arrived in one year. And the UK now for many years has been having 30,000, 40,000, 45,000 boat people arrive, mainly from North Africa. So of course the locals are going to be very furious about this, and it’s just become a massive issue. It’s just so embarrassing to me that this country, the UK, which once had the most powerful Navy in the world for centuries, cannot police this fairly small gap of water and stop the immigration coming. So it really is incumbent on the new prime minister to do so, and I really think he has to very quickly.
This is a massive issue, not just there. And I know there has been some progress. The population growth of the UK has fallen. Well, sorry, not fallen. The growth rate is the lowest now in 13 years. I note also it’s probably worth mentioning Canada where the immigration rate has collapsed so much that the country’s whole population is now shrinking. So if I was a betting man, I would say the population of Australia will slow down dramatically soon and there’ll be a big fall in immigration as well.
Gabriella Power:
Interesting to get your prediction there. But you mentioned it’s on Andy Burnham really. I mean, he’s blasted some of the protestors and he’s put out a statement saying that we must stop the politics of poison seeping into our streets.
Adam Creighton:
Oh, God.
Gabriella Power:
I mean, I don’t think he really gets this. I though GB News host Patrick Christys made a very good point on Twitter. He posted, “The government can’t just hand out anti-child rape booklets to illegal immigrants and then expect the people of Portsmouth to be happy that illegal immigrants have landed on their beaches. It is very basic common sense that locals would want these people sent back to France.”
So look, I suspect there could be some more protests?
Adam Creighton:
Yes. Look, I certainly think there will be. And so far there’s been no policy change by the new British Prime Minister from the Labour Party over there. Just spending more money on welfare is certainly not going to fix this issue. And unless they do something drastic about this, you’re going to have the same results in the UK that you’re seeing in Germany where you have so-called far right parties claiming 44% of the primary vote. So they’re going to have to change their policies radically. I just can’t understand how the government, which is meant to have the native people’s interests at heart, and by that I mean people born in the country who are British, who are English in this case, why it’s not listening to their very valid complaints.
Gabriella Power:
Yep. No, you’re spot on.
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Let’s turn to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy has said that he expects the war with Russia to continue into the winter. This follows talks with Donald Trump’s top envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner who travelled to Ukraine after having talks with Putin in Moscow. Let’s just take a listen.
Steve Witkoff:
Both sides have to come to a resolution here. And my job and Jared’s job together is to bring the parties together to narrow the issues between them, to create good communication channels. And hopefully we began that process constructively in the last 48 hours and we’re confident that there’ll be a good resolution here.
Gabriella Power:
Adam, what’s your assessment? Is progress being made?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, I think some progress is going to have to be made soon because the war is getting more and more serious. It’s been going for what? Four years now. It’s been absolutely devastating, especially for Ukraine, which I think has lost millions and millions of young men and fled the country permanently. Many buildings have been destroyed, much of the infrastructure. The war itself, of course, is getting much more serious because now you’ve got both sides attacking each other’s primary energy infrastructure with drones.
And my personal view is not the popular one here. I really think Ukraine inevitably is going to have to make some sort of concession that means Vladimir Putin will accept a deal because let’s face it, Russia is a much more powerful country. It is right next door. I don’t think the US or the EU has any appetite to have a war with Russia over this, what some would say is some sort of internal Slavic dispute over territory.
And I think Trump is smart enough to know that that’s going to be the result. It’s just the politics of it are so difficult because both sides have to save face. The US is running out of interceptors, which are very expensive and very hard to make, and it can’t just hand them over to Ukraine to stop Russian missiles because the US itself needs them now in its own war with Iran. And of course then who knows what China’s going to do? So they have to have a large reserve. So this is not an easy situation and I don’t have the answer. I feel sorry for these negotiators because it’s just such a difficult situation.
Gabriella Power:
Oh, me too. Now, Donald Trump and his top allies are sharing the stage with Republican candidates at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas. What can we expect from this convention? Of course, this is in the lead up to the midterms. It’s not far away at all now, less than 60 days to go. What are you expecting from the midterms?
Adam Creighton:
Well, I mean traditionally the incumbent president’s party does very badly, and I think that’s probably what’s going to happen in this midterms. I mean, from looking at the betting markets and the polling, I think the Democrats have a 90% rough chance of winning back control of the House of Representatives, which would be a big change. I think the Senate, where I think the Republicans have a 53, 47 majority, that is looking more 50/50 because senators have much, much longer terms. If the Democrats win control of the Senate as well, that would be a disaster for the president for his final two years of office because there’ll just be endless inquiries into the government. There’ll be endless commissions. They have power to block spending, to block anything. I mean, the Congress is a very powerful institution when one party controls both chambers.
So I think if I were Trump’s advisors, I’d be trying to wrap up this unpopular war with Iran and I’d be turning maybe to cultural issues to highlight some of the mad fringe elements in the Democratic Party.
Gabriella Power:
And there are some mad fringe elements, aren’t there?
Adam Creighton:
Yes.
Gabriella Power:
I mean, some of those radicals, those DSA-backed radicals clearly –
Adam Creighton:
Not so much fringe actually. It’s probably half the party.
Gabriella Power:
Well, it’s true. They’ve got a lot of control, don’t they? Hey, I want to ask you about this fascinating case. Fascinating is one word for it, but it certainly gripped the attention of the globe. The Lindsay Clancy trial, a mistrial has been declared in Lindsay Clancy’s murder case after jurors said they were unable to reach unanimous verdict in the killings of her three children after a week of deliberating.
Now, this mistrial followed a dramatic dispute over an alleged 11 to 1 divide. It’s been very interesting to watch the amount of support that Lindsay Clancy has gained right around the world in the US, right here in Australia too. I mean, the GoFundMe for Lindsay Clancy, the woman who does not deny that she killed her three children, now has over 35,000 individual donors. Many fans of hers as well turned out to court absolutely cheering for her. Let’s look at this.
What do you make of the level of support we are seeing for Lindsay Clancy?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, I think this is a very tragic case and it goes back to 2023. And I think in any conventional sense of the word, this woman is insane. I mean, she killed her three children. There are very complex legal issues at play here of whether she’s culpable for it or not. I just think with this, filming the court proceedings, having it open to everyone just turns this into a massive political circus and it’s very difficult for the jurors then who will fear for their lives if they do one thing or the other. And who knows how that has played in this situation? I think a mistrial is upsetting and I think it’s probably incumbent on the prosecution to prosecute again and to try again. Maybe they’ll have to change the charges if they want to win. But of course, I’m no lawyer and these are very difficult situations, but the support for her is very strange and I think it’s all about politics.
Gabriella Power:
Yeah, I think the support has been very strange. I mean, some of the commentary I’m reading from journalists and some posts on social media is quite bizarre. I think they seem to want to excuse the murder because of her clear mental illness. So we’ll see what happens there.
Just returning to Australia now, One Nation has proposed a major shakeup of the compulsory superannuation system offering renters or mortgage holders the option to access their future super contributions. And I’m very fascinated to get your thoughts on this. Of course, the proposal would allow people paying rent or mortgage to divert one quarter of their future super contributions into their take home pay for up to three years. What do you make of this policy?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, I think it’s a fantastic policy. And actually I must say it’s very similar to a recommendation in my column in the Australian a few weeks back actually where I said three percentage points of the 12 should be optional. So I’m fully supportive of One Nation’s policy. I mean, I wouldn’t let it be for three years. I let it be completely optional for as long as the individual wanted.
And I must say, I just saw moments ago breaking in the Australian that the coalition has a similar policy on their hands. I haven’t read the details of that yet, but what that says to me is if you’ve got the coalition and One Nation more or less having a similar policy towards superannuation, that means there is going to be some major change of superannuation. And that is a terrific thing because the policy, the 12% rate is far too high. I mean, Labor’s favourite treasury secretary Ken Henry said in 2009 that 9.5 or 9% was well enough. It’s gone to 12 and the only people that benefit from that are the financial services sector and the trade unions who get to control these large sums of money.
People are saving too much and they’re hurting now. And the utility of money is much higher when you’re younger and you’re raising a family in your 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and you need it. I mean, who cares if you have an extra 100K when you’re 95? It doesn’t matter, okay? So I think people should be allowed to access some at least of their super if they want.
Gabriella Power:
So well said, I should say. And I’m glad they’re reading your columns. Let’s just listen to Pauline Hanson speak about this.
Pauline Hanson:
Those people that are working are renters or paying a mortgage will, by the choice, can apply to their superannuation fund to withdraw up to 3%, one-quarter of their superannuation moving forward.
Gabriella Power:
Yeah, that is Pauline Hanson making the announcement.
Adam, I want to ask you about Nike though. Nike has been booted from the S&P 100 after their stock tanked up to 80%. Nike is now being accused of going woke and so now going broke. And a lot of people on social media are circulating this ad. Let’s take a look.
Many are saying, “Well, maybe this contributes to Nike’s failings.”
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, the 78% fall in share price over I think the last few years is just extraordinary. I mean, it’s still a very large company. It’s still profitable, but I have no doubt that the tendency for a lot of these companies, especially sports companies that sell sports clothes and running shoes, you would not think that they would go woke, that that would help them. The sort of customers who buy that are not typically woke. But I think the conclusion for this is that woke is dead in the United States and it has been for some time now. And I think Australian big businesses need to wake up and realise that and maybe very discreetly pull some of their marketing nonsense as well and to keep their advertising in keeping with views and beliefs of their customers.
Gabriella Power:
Adam, before I let you go, there’s widespread speculation over Donald Trump’s hair colour. He was photographed stepping off Air Force One in New Jersey and now there’s this social media frenzy over his hair. What do you think about his new look?
Adam Creighton:
Look, I don’t think I’m a big fan of the new look. It’s definitely a new look. It’s definitely a different colour. And I think Donald Trump takes great pride in his appearance. I think he has done for many, many years. And I think for man of his age, he looks good and is relatively healthy. Some advisor must have said, “Look, this is going to win a few more votes and he’s agreed with it.”
Gabriella Power:
And the midterms.
Adam Creighton:
So let’s just see if this is a hair shift for the midterms and whether it works or not. But he likes the attention-
Gabriella Power:
Of Course.
Adam Creighton:
… so he’s probably enjoying the speculation.
Gabriella Power:
And here we are absolutely just giving it to him.
Adam Creighton, chief economist at the Institute of Public Affairs. Thank you so much for joining us on Power Hour.
Adam Creighton:
Thanks very much.
This transcript with Adam Creighton talking on The Power Hour – News24 from 8 September 2026 has been edited for clarity.
