Chris Smith:
Adam Creighton is joining us. He’s a senior fellow and chief economist with the Institute of Public Affairs, columnist with The Australian newspaper and its former Washington correspondent. How are you, Adam?
Adam Creighton:
Good morning, Chris. Well, thanks.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. Last time we spoke, last week, there was no war in Iran. There is now. Is it a just and legal war?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, that’s a really hard question. I don’t think it’s legal according to international law. I think that’s a pretty safe bet. But in fairness, not many countries do pay to international law anymore. I think it’s all a bit of a joke anyway, just employment for lawyers. But whether it’s just a different question. And I think it might be. It’s certainly a very risky thing that the US has done. That because Iran is such a big country, 90 million people, it’s geographically very large, much more sophisticated than Afghanistan and Libya and Iraq. Which, of course, as you know, they all turned out to be disasters for the US. But so far, I’ve got to say, this seems to be going the US’s way.
Chris Smith:
And very quickly.
Adam Creighton:
Yes. Iran’s running out of missiles, apparently. Their number of volleys has dropped 90% just over the last week. It looks like the regime will collapse, and that’s a good thing. Although I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger myself, it does seem to be going in the US’s way, and that’s a good thing.
Chris Smith:
Where are their allies? Where’s Canada? I know the Prime Minister is in Australia for some reason. And then, I know our Prime Minister says he supports the United States, but wasn’t aware of what they were doing. The rest of us were. And then, France, yeah. And then the UK sending four planes to shoot down drones. It’s just a smack in the face for their 100 ally.
Adam Creighton:
Well, it is. Yeah. Look, it certainly is a smack in the face to the US from Britain and France. And as I understand it, Australia and Canada, they’re just offering rhetoric, obviously. Although, in fairness, they don’t have much capability. We don’t have much capability to help anyone. I don’t think we’ve got about one submarine that operates. But, yeah, Britain and France is more surprising, especially since they want the US to take a bigger role in the Ukraine. The question of allies is more interesting too on the Iranian side. Why isn’t China and Russia helping Iran? I think they’d be pretty disappointed about that in Tehran.
And I think it’s because the US is just overwhelmingly powerful. And Russia and China don’t want to get involved, even though they certainly could. And China stands to lose a lot of oil imports from Iran. I think about 13% of its oil comes from Iran. That’s going to be disruptive if the US succeeds. On the other hand, this is tying up a lot of US military equipment that would otherwise be in the South China Sea, or potentially in Ukraine.
Chris Smith:
Yeah, that’s very true. His battery has been banned in Australia. About time. I don’t know how long we’ve been talking about this.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, certainly that is a good thing. And I’m pleased to see that these laws, as much as I’m opposed to them, these new hate speeds laws, at least they’re being used for groups that are a serious potential problem in Australia. And I’m kind of surprised that group wasn’t banned already. It’s banned in India, of course, which has a large Muslim population. It’s banned in the UK and various other Western countries as well. We were quite late to the party banning it. I think if all those governments have decided it’s a great threat, then I think it’s fair to say it must be.
Chris Smith:
Front page of The Australian see some of Australia’s key city mayors pleading with Climate Change Minister, Chris Bowen, to not allow the big AI data centres to undermine their power and water. They can’t have it both ways, Adam. They can’t demonise our base load power for unreliable renewables, which they all did and still do, and then introduce data centres into the economy, which we need and expect that the power in the water is just going to come down from nowhere. I don’t know where they think this is going to come from.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. Look, I think the coalition is right when it said you need nuclear power really to take advantage of these AI data centres. And I don’t know whether there’ve been any firm contracts signed, but I don’t understand why a big US firm would put one here because our energy costs is just so high already.
Chris Smith:
Yeah.
Adam Creighton:
And these things chews through an enormous amount of power. One official forecast I saw recently said that by 2030 the additional power from all these AI centres will be equal to the power output of Japan.
Chris Smith:
Wow.
Adam Creighton:
And so, it’s going to be enormous. And it’s somewhat ironic. It’s basically, I think that the emergence of AI technology is going to wreck all of net zero fantasies all around the world. Because there’s going to be enormous demand for electricity and it simply can’t be provided by solar and wind power. The mayors are right, they realise if these centres are built here and there’s no change to the system, then it’s going to put even more upward pressure on our prices. But I just don’t see the centres coming in the first place, really.
Chris Smith:
Yeah. We have a date for the Farrer by-election, May 9. Luckily for the government, a few days before the treasurer’s budget. Or is it lucky? What do you make of the timing of the by-election?
Adam Creighton:
Well, it’s certainly going to be very fascinating. I think there’s a couple of by-elections in Victoria before Farrer, but the three of them combined are the first real test of One Nation. Well, sorry, there’s the South Australian election, but certainly a major federal test of One Nation. And I don’t think… Is the Labour Party contesting that set? I don’t think they are. Or maybe they are. But anyway, it’s going to be liberals versus nationals versus One Nation. So it’s going to be a very interesting three-way contest.
Look, does it help or hinder the government? Obviously, they… Well, I really don’t know what Labour would like to see. I think they’d probably like to see the Liberals lose the seat maybe to One Nation. That would probably help them the most. But look, it probably is a good thing. This is not going to be a good budget for the government. I think it’s going to show that spending continues to blow out and taxes continue to surge, and so they’ll be happy to have this to talk about. But for the rest of the country, I think it’s a much more interesting thing to talk about. Frankly, I think federal budgets tend to be a lot of politics and not much economics.
Chris Smith:
True, true. Just getting back on the South Australian election. This could see, as we saw in WA, the demolition of the Liberal Party in that state, couldn’t it?
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. Yeah. Look, it certainly could. State elections are showing enormous volatility in voting, and so far that volatility has been away from the Liberal Party. And I think that could happen in South Australia too. I think it seems One Nation’s going to pick up a lot of seats there. It’s unlikely they’ll form government. I think it’s pretty clear Labor’s going to win. But it’s a pretty scary time for the Liberal Party, I would say. There’d be a lot of very nervous MPs at state and federal level all around the country who probably realise their careers are going to be cut short in a few years. Because basically they haven’t changed their ways. They haven’t listened to the people on migration and energy.
Chris Smith:
Very true. Should they be considering some kind of preference deal with One Nation? Now, the Victorian Liberal Party is saying no. Barnaby Joyce is saying, “You better.” What will Angus Taylor do?
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, they should. There’s nothing wrong with One Nation, they just have different policies. I think treating it with contempt is really bad politics. Basically, every time Pauline Hanson is screamed at as a racist by some Green, I think she gains in popularity. It’s not even in the Liberal Party’s interest not having one. But the reality is, they’re going to have to deal with the party after these elections because it’s quite possible that One Nation will have even more seats than the liberal and national parties. And if they’re going to form government, then they’re going to have to work together.
Chris Smith:
It might be the only way they can save the furniture.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Look, I think that’s right. And look, at the end of the day, people send their own preferences. It’s up to the individual to decide their preferences. I just wish everyone wouldn’t listen to the how to vote cards and just make up their mind themselves. It’s only an ordering of five or six, so people should decide their own order. Certainly, that’s what I do. I’m sure you do as well, Chris.
Chris Smith:
Absolutely. Yeah. Sometimes I spend too long in the ballot box and I just think I should just tick something or put a one somewhere and get the hell out of there.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah.
Chris Smith:
Thank you, Adam. Have a great weekend.
Adam Creighton:
No problem. Thanks, Chris. Thank you.
Chris Smith:
Adam Creighton from the IPA.
This transcript of Adam Creighton on 2SM Mornings with Chris Smith from 6 March 2026 has been edited for clarity.
