An Analysis Of The Employment Consequences Of A Net Zero Emissions Target In NSW

The New South Wales Government and Opposition have both committed NSW to the policy of net zero carbon equivalent emissions by 2050. They have also both committed to the medium-term target of reducing CO2-e emissions by half of 2005 levels by 2030 – just seven years from now.

This report finds that the policy of net zero emissions will put up to 138,095 jobs at risk across NSW, with 67% of these jobs located in rural and regional NSW.

Potential job losses are concentrated in the agricultural, oil and gas, electricity supply, and coal mining sectors.

The top five electoral districts in the NSW Legislative Assembly with the most jobs at risk are as follows:

• Upper Hunter: 9,327 jobs at risk, which are the equivalent to 26% of all jobs in the electorate
• Barwon: 5,976 jobs at risk, which are the equivalent to 20% of all jobs in the electorate
• Cootamundra: 5,591 jobs at risk, which are the equivalent to 19% of all jobs in the electorate
• Murray: 6,288 jobs at risk, which are the equivalent to 16% of all jobs in the electorate
• Northern Tablelands: 5,125 jobs at risk, which are the equivalent to 16% of all jobs in the electorate

All of these electorates are represented by either the National Party, or regional or rural independents.

The analysis further establishes:

• Eight out of the top ten electorates with the most jobs at risk are held by the Nationals or regional or rural independents, with one (Cessnock) represented by Labor and the other (Goulburn) represented by the Liberals.
• All of the top twenty electorates with the most jobs at risk are in rural or regional NSW.
• Seven out of the ten least affected seats are inner city seats, the rest being inner metropolitan seats.

This analysis builds on a recent IPA research report, Net Zero Jobs: An analysis of the employment impacts of a net zero emissions target in Australia, which estimated 653,600 jobs to be at risk nationwide as a result of Australia’s commitment to the net zero by 2050 target.