Donald Trump’s remarkable political comeback reflects a change of popular mood, a change also visible here in Australia, write IPA staff.
Donald Trump’s victory on 5 November will have seismic consequences for the world, and marks a turning point for Western nations, including Australia. While not quite a landslide, the victory was emphatic, comprehensive, uncontested, and was driven by geographically, racially, and religiously diverse communities across America. The size of the victory is roughly comparable to Obama’s election in 2012, when he won 51 per cent of the popular vote and 330 out of 538 electoral college votes. Trump won 50 per cent of the popular vote compared with 48.4 per cent for Harris and, with Arizona going his way—along with all other six ‘battleground’ states—secured 312 electoral college votes. This is the largest Republican presidential victory since 1988, when George H. W. Bush received 53.4 per cent of the popular vote and secured 436 electoral college votes against Democrat Michael Dukakis’ 111.
Trump also won a staggering 46 per cent of the vote of those aged 18-29, and achieved swings towards him among Hispanics and African-Americans. Compared with the 2020 election, Trump increased his vote in 92 per cent of counties across America. Trump’s relative popularity has increased over time, with his popular vote climbing from 46.1 per cent in 2016, to 46.8 per cent in 2020, to 50.0 per cent in 2024. His victory is not explained by the weakness of Kamala Harris, because while the weakness of an opponent will depress that candidate’s vote it will not increase the other candidate’s vote in an election where voting is voluntary. At current counting, Trump is likely to receive around 14 million more votes than he did in 2016, and is likely to be almost three million votes up on 2020.
Unlike 2016, when Trump was not able to carry a majority of the national electorate, the result in 2024 was incontestable. As of writing, Trump received 76.9 million votes at the 2024 election and counting, compared to 62.99 million votes in 2016. It was to the great relief of most Americans, of all persuasions, that this was so, and Biden was able to solemnise the result and the enduring democratic traditions of America with a dignified reception for President-elect Trump at the White House.
In defiance of claims the second Trump victory represented a pervasive bifurcation of American politics, in which blue states went a deeper blue and red states went further red, the large Democrat strongholds carried much of the weight of Trump’s popular vote majority in 2024. In 14 states the vote shifted against Trump by more than one percentage point from 2016. For instance, in Colorado and Vermont, Trump lost by an additional five percentage points compared to 2016, and in Maine, Kansas and Nebraska, Trump’s winning margin was reduced by four percentage points compared to 2016.
Trump did not shy away from culture war issues.
In contrast, in 25 states the vote shifted towards Trump by more than one percentage point. Florida was the biggest mover, changing from a marginal swing state in 2016 to a solid Republican state in the space of eight years. It moved 12 percentage points in Trump’s favour between the two elections. Notably, aside from Florida, seven other states shifted in Trump’s favour by more than five percentage points compared to 2016, and five of those are among the most safe and reliably Democratic states: New York (10.7 per cent in Trump’s favour); California (9.9 per cent in Trump’s favour); Hawaii (9.1 per cent in Trump’s favour); New Jersey (8.2 per cent in Trump’s favour); and Illinois (6.1 per cent in Trump’s favour). These five states alone accounted for approximately three million extra votes in the Trump column compared to 2016.
The mainstream polls once again systematically underestimated Trump’s support, once again inviting the criticism that these polls were undertaken to suppress and demoralise Trump voters, rather than to forecast election outcomes. A notable example is one of the final polls, published by the famed Des Moines Register in Iowa, having Harris beating Trump 47 per cent to 44 per cent in that state—yet Trump went on to win Iowa 56-43.
NO GENDER DIVIDE
While the chasm between the world views of young men and women in the West continues to grow wider, Trump managed to engage with young people and earn their support. Gallup poll data from the United States shows that left and right world views were spread equally across the gender divide over the past few decades. But today women aged 18-30 are 30 percentage points more progressive than their male contemporaries. This divide opened in just six years and makes it increasingly difficult for politicians to offer policies which bridge the gap.
This gave rise to the belief that this would be the gender election. Both presidential candidates leaned into this, with Kamala Harris enlisting the help of celebrities and labelling herself ‘brat’ after the release of pop singer Charli XCX’s album. Meanwhile, Trump spoke with Elon Musk about rockets and was interviewed by right-wing, male-centric podcasters that reached millions of locked-in followers.
However, the larger-than-ever gender divide was not realised. Instead, the Democrats’ vote share among women dropped. In 2020, Biden won 55 per cent of female voters while Harris won only 53 per cent. Trump increased his share of the female vote by three per cent from his last presidential run, winning the support of 46 per cent of women.
Trump, one of the most unorthodox leaders of our time, managed what seemed impossible in November’s presidential election—he improved his standing among young men and women. What did he do right? First, he campaigned on cost-of-living, an issue men and women alike care about. Second, he harnessed social media to his advantage, reaching millions of disenfranchised young men and, third, he did not shy away from culture war issues such as radical transgender theory.
Conservative issues still resonate with young people.
As was found in the Institute of Public Affairs’ 2023 Survey of Young Australians, the Trump election refutes the narrative that most young people sit firmly on the left side of politics. Instead, a sizeable share of young Australians and Americans hold traditional mainstream values. Cost-of-living was a central part of the Trump campaign and a key concern for many mainstream Americans. He was able to harness the concern young people have about the state of the economy, rising national debt, falling quality of living, and the difficulty of purchasing their own home. It was a winning strategy.
Social media was also a gamechanger for the Republican campaign. Young people increasingly get their news from platforms like TikTok, Facebook, Spotify and X. Trump engaged with the new media, appearing on podcasts hosted by Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Theo Von, Adin Ross and Andrew Schulz. The male-dominated audiences that follow these influencers often feel disenfranchised by those radical versions of feminism which elevate women at the expense of men. This is reinforced by a survey from the Pew Research Survey which found 23 per cent of men believed the advancement of women had come at their expense.
In this context, and with the world of conservative influencers dwarfing progressive influencers, social media offers a way for politicians to speak to young men about the issues that matter to them.
There is also the factor that while Kamala Harris promised to bring back ‘joy’, it was Trump and his team who seemed to be having a much better time. The use of the pop-culture anthem, YMCA, literally had audiences dancing (and Trump, idiosyncratically), and conveyed a positive vibe which made it hard for the Democrats who were attempting to paint Trump as the malevolent enemy of democracy and ordinary people.
The incredible footage of Trump ally Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starship returning to Earth, upright, to be caught in the ‘chopsticks’, also rekindled in Americans a cultural memory of a time when they felt they were capable of great things and led the world in innovation.
Finally, Trump engaged in culture war debates. Where Democrats pushed reproductive rights (which Trump insisted should not be a matter for the Federal government), Republicans pushed against the radical transgender agenda in sports and education. Just a week before the election Trump campaigned on this issue, saying to a cheering crowd:
We will get … transgender insanity the hell out of our schools, and we will keep men out of women’s sports.
The Republican policy platform included a ban on male transgender athletes competing in female sports and a ban on gender-affirming care for minors. It is clear young people are pushing back against the elites’ radical woke agenda and Trump harnessed that energy.
The message to Australia’s leaders is that conservative issues still resonate with young people. Taking a stand on traditional ideas—all too often howled down by the inner-city elites and political class—will pay dividends.
TRUMP CARDS
Trump won because he understood the issues that regular Americans are concerned about: the opportunity to have a well-paid job with which to raise a family in a crime-free suburb; national borders which are respected and protected; common-sense values on family, identity, and education; and a patriotism born of the understanding that America, despite its faults, is the world’s most consequential free, democratic nation, and one which should be celebrated rather than denigrated.
Finally, net zero is dead.
While there will be much more analysis over the coming months, and it can never be stated enough that the economic concerns of voters are nearly always determinative, five other key lessons can be drawn from Trump’s victory.
First, the revolt by common men and women across the Western world continues. Trump’s victory is a dramatic refutation of the permanent political class, and the corporate and media establishment. We have seen similar uprisings, in the UK with Brexit, in Australia with the defeat of the Voice to Parliament, and in the EU (see ‘EU & UK, RU OK?’, IPA Review, Spring 2024). The gulf between the rulers and the ruled is now so big and obvious and growing that it can no longer be ignored or diminished.
Second, the political-cultural realignment is now almost complete in the US. The Republican party is now well and truly the party of the working class, while the Democrats represent the interests of wealthy elites. This will fundamentally transform how America is governed, and the policies which the second Trump Administration will offer. Unless there is a change of course, the Democrats are now identified as the party of elitism, wokeism, and declinism. The ALP faces a similar fate in Australia.
Next, the influence of the establishment media continues its decline. Trump won because he engaged with the new media, appearing on dozens of podcasts including the world’s biggest podcast with Joe Rogan. He was able to largely ignore the corporate media, which appears sclerotic and inauthentic compared with podcasts and independent media platforms.
Fourth, Western society has not been defeated by wokeism, at least not yet. While some people claim to be offended by his unique vernacular, the majority of Americans understood what was at stake at this election, and that the choice was essentially between someone who believes America is a force for good for humanity, and someone who became the mouthpiece for a worldview which holds American society is illegitimate, racist, and something to be ashamed of rather than celebrated.
Finally, net zero is dead. Trump withdrew from the economy-crushing Paris Climate Agreement in his first term and has promised to do the same after Biden rejoined. Amongst other issues, net zero benefits China, because it is causing the re-orientation of global supply chains around the preferred model of the Chinese Communist Party. And the national security consequences of Australia’s short-sighted net zero commitment will become more apparent as the tensions between the West and China heighten.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?
On the international front, the Western alliance will be strengthened, but only if Australia pulls its weight. In his first term President Trump criticised NATO countries in Europe for not meeting that alliance’s formal goal of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence. With a deteriorating security environment that benchmark now looks like the bare minimum. For this and other reasons (as outlined in the IPA’s Defence Blueprint series) Australia should commit to allocating 3 per cent of GDP to defence spending by the end of the next term of government. Australian political leaders must offer a valuable contribution to the Western alliance, and not be perceived as freeloaders. We have a large continental landmass which is of vital geopolitical importance, and presumably there will now be a much larger US Marine rotation through the North (a recommendation of the Defence Blueprint). But we must also dramatically improve our domestic capacity to produce our own defence capabilities, restore our energy sovereignty, and strengthen the economic and social foundations of our nation so we are ready and able to contribute if needed.
Change is what Trump, and the voters, are after.
Trump has committed to cutting red and green tape in energy production to “keep pace with the world economy that depends on fossil fuels for more than 80 per cent of its energy”, with a view to ‘drill baby drill’ as early as possible. He observed:
We have more liquid gold – oil and gas – more liquid gold than any country in the world, more than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia.
This claim is backed by statistical data. The US is, by far, the largest producer of natural gas and oil in the world – and the fourth largest producer of coal, just ahead of Australia at number five. To hinder energy production, and therefore economic development, in order to remove competition against wind and solar in the energy market, is a decadence that working people – in both the United States and Australia – simply cannot afford.
Implementing President Trump’s energy plan will be relatively straightforward given the Republicans’ clean sweep of Congress. In his victory speech, incoming Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno—who ‘flipped’ that seat— declared:
We’re gonna make this country an energy-dominant nation, so that my kids do not grow up in a country where we ever rely on a foreign nation for energy ever, ever again. And we have that energy right here in Ohio. That means coal. That means natural gas. That means oil. And that means nuclear. And in terms of EV [Electric Vehicle] mandates: they need to be gone first thing in January.
A study by the Texas Public Policy Foundation, referenced in the IPA’s submission to the Inquiry into the Transition to Electric Vehicles, found that the cost of producing EVs is far higher than the prices for which they are being sold. Each EV in the United States receives subsidies and regulatory credits which can add up to more than half of the vehicle’s selling price. Abandoning EV mandates and subsidies will not only reinvigorate the market, it will impose much needed fiscal discipline and help reduce budget deficits.
Trump’s second administration will likely be much different, and better, than his first. For starters, there are none of the legacy Republican appointees who were lukewarm or hostile to the Trump agenda, and/or who were simply there for business-as-usual ‘swamp’ operations. They have all quit the party and have either joined the Democrats or are sitting it out, and so have limited relevance. Many of Trump’s nominees are relatively uncontroversial and have recognised credentials, such as Scott Bessent in Treasury and Marco Rubio in State. But he has brought with him a cadre of outsiders, who will take on key posts within his administration.
Trump conveyed a positive vibe.
Most notably there is RFK Jr, Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, who is self-evidently a counterpoint to the overreach of health bureaucrats like Anthony Fauci during the pandemic. Tulsi Gabbard, famously sceptical of the military industrial complex, has been nominated to be Director of National Intelligence. And Vivek Ramaswamy has been tasked with overseeing a new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ alongside perhaps the most visible personality of the Trump campaign after Trump himself —Elon Musk.
Some of the nominees have proven too challenging even for the Republicans, such as Matt Gaetz, who had to withdraw his candidature for Attorney-General. Not all of those appointed to be change agents will succeed, but change is what Trump, and the voters, are after.
ESSENCE OF MUSK
One of the key lessons Australians should take away from the US election is the fact that this remarkable exercise in democratic argument was only possible because in 2022 Elon Musk broke the Democrat stranglehold on social media with his purchase of Twitter. The global push for government censorship of the internet is clearly targeting Elon Musk and Twitter, now known as X. Until Musk’s purchase of X, governments did not need to regulate social media because the platforms were acquiescent in ‘requests’ to censor enemies of the State and remove ‘misinformation’.
J. D. Vance ensures MAGA policies will outlive Trump.
And while the elites deplored both Musk’s acquisition of the company and his subsequent clearing out of that Augean Stable, Musk and his fellow ‘conspiracists’ were utterly vindicated by the revelations of the Twitter Files. There were indeed key staff at Twitter either explicitly allied with the Democrats, or perhaps merely of the generally woke persuasion, who were only too happy to help protect Joe Biden, his family, and his agenda. The files revealed this was part of a wider pattern, including many otherwise unexplained actions such as suspending dissenters’ accounts or ensuring that no one would see the posts in their Twitter feeds.
There is some irony that at precisely the time Donald Trump was becoming only the second American to win non-consecutive presidential terms, the Albanese Government was renewing its push towards internet censorship. The result in the US means the best the supporters of internet censorship can now hope for is that Australia becomes an island of ignorance in a sea of informed commentary, with its citizens blocked from accessing the robust to and fro of democratic debate that is the singular feature of how things are done in the Land of the Free. (We also note that Trump and his circle have already begun to warn US security partners that infringing the principle of free speech by targeting X would not be looked upon kindly.)
But while there is considerable excitement about Musk’s potential role in the second Trump administration, we should perhaps wait to see whether he and Ramaswamy can indeed grapple with the many-headed beast of government.
Perhaps most importantly, there is J.D. Vance, who is a remarkable political figure, and ensures that MAGA (Make America Great Again) policies will outlive Trump. While still a work-in-progress, Vance brings a rare combination of real-world experience, an intellectual understanding of policy and cultural matters, and the capacity to clearly communicate these matters to ordinary people. The latter quality was on display during the campaign. As the Vice President he will be the presumptive Republican nominee for 2028.
None of this is to say Trump will not be without some notable limitations and drawbacks. The team he has assembled is a combination of the highly competent, the untried, and the occasionally very problematic. But there is significant upside for domestic policies, and almost certainly a renewed strength in the main power of the Western alliance.
However you feel about Trump the person, there is no denying this was one of the greatest political comebacks of all time, and will likely usher in generational change to the global order.
This article from the Summer 2024 edition of the IPA Review is written by IPA Executive Director Scott Hargreaves, Deputy Director Daniel Wild, Director of Research Morgan Begg, Senior Fellow Kevin You, and Research Fellow Brianna McKee.
