National Security Under Fire

A thorough analysis of armed conflicts reveals Australia’s reckless rush to renewable energy threatens our national security, warns IPA Senior Fellow Kevin You.

The First Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Omar Bradley, once stated that in war: “Amateurs talk strategy; professionals talk logistics”. Our mental image of combat—of infantrymen shooting at each other, artillery being launched at the enemy, and tanks marching across battlefields—hides much of the reality of modern warfare. The outcome of war is more often decided in factories, supply depots, and workshops than on the battlefield. The roles of industrialists, power plant technicians, truck drivers, engineers, and coal miners are arguably as critical to the war effort as the role of the brave men and women who don uniforms.

The US produces more oil than any other nation.

This is not to dismiss the contributions of armed servicemen, to whom we owe our freedom, economic prosperity, and cushy lifestyle. But we must recognise that we all play a role in preserving what they have fought for and often given the ultimate sacrifice to protect. In times of turbulence, all of us will be called upon to participate in the defence of the privileges we currently take for granted.

Economic and industrial might, technological prowess and administrative capacity are more important today than ever before in determining the outcome of armed conflict. So is the availability and dispatchability of the resources needed to fuel them, such as coal, gas, and oil. This is one of the key takeaways from Big Wars: Why do they happen and when will the next one be?

This insightful book is the work of the Institute of Public Affairs’ own Law and Policy Director, John Storey. In this fascinating text, Storey delves deep into the various factors that determine the outcome of armed conflict. At almost 500 pages, Big Wars is big—and not for the faint-hearted. One minute, you are transported to the Western Pacific to witness the devastation of Japan’s Kamikaze warfare: a means by which “cheap, clunky, out of date Japanese aircraft flown by inexperienced but desperate pilots” are turned into highly effective self-guided missiles.

The next minute takes you to the Axis headquarters, where it dawns upon the German leadership that Operation Barbarossa will last far longer than they had anticipated, and they are locked in a war of attrition. Running out of fuel, a decision is made to cross the Caucasus and take the campaign to Azerbaijan in the hope of capturing the Soviet Union’s rich oilfields.

FUEL BECOMES CRITICAL

Across most of human history, muscle power reigned supreme on the battlefield. As Storey reminds us: swords, spears, axes, and arrows were ultimately fuelled by man’s energy intake. The destruction they caused was relatively limited and immediately evident. This all changed at the dawn of the gunpowder age, which introduced siege weapons and firearms—and the centralisation of power in the effectiveness of cannon against castle walls that had traditionally protected regional lords and minor princes from central authorities.

The critical importance of machines of war, and the fuel that sustains them, accelerated throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. The size of a polity’s armed forces was once determinative of its strength. Even battles on the seas, in classical eras, largely mirrored those on land in that they were a contest of muscle strength on floating islands; the more seamen on board, the better.

Today, manpower is no longer a determinant of strength and capability. North Korea, Vietnam, India, Ukraine, and Brazil all dwarf the US in the total number of military personnel—thanks to their massive populations of trained reservists. But the supremacy of the US military, above all the others, is not in doubt. The strength of the US military ensured the nation’s sphere of influence stretches across the globe: from the Western Pacific to the Middle East, to its own backyard in the Americas.

The hydrocarbon-fuelled industrial might of the US ensured it was able to play a leading role in World War II in both the Pacific and European theatres.

Despite its waning influence as a result of its recent commitment to the renewable energy transition and woke ideology, in Storey’s assessment, the US will remain militarily formidable for some time into the future. The Pax Americana that delivered unprecedented prosperity for much of the world and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty since the end of WWII has been built on the back of not only scientific innovation and economic rationalism, but also the production and consumption of hydrocarbon fuels.

That the US produces more oil than any other nation on the planet is no coincidence. In 2023, the US produced 22 million barrels per day—eclipsing Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates combined. Iran and Kuwait did not come even close.

The US is also the largest consumer of oil in the world, with its oil consumption the equivalent of China’s and India’s combined. Oil—in addition to other forms of fossil fuel that feed its military and industrial machines—has ensured the role of the US as the world’s only ‘globocop’ (a term Storey uses) has been unparalleled, and largely unchallenged, since WWII.

ENERGY SECURITY IS NATIONAL SECURITY

Understanding the role of hydrocarbon fuels in maintaining global security helps us to appreciate their role in maintaining national security. Major conflict in the 21st century will necessarily encroach into the civilian sphere in a way it never has in the past. Securing dispatchable and affordable energy has never been more vital to national security.

Lasting peace is achieved by projecting strength.

Research published by the IPA in November 2023, Energy Security is National Security, warned against abrogating control over our energy and national security in the name of carbon emissions reduction:

Betting our future on a massive program of acquiring new wind and solar energy plants, overwhelmingly from [the People’s Republic of] China, ignores the risk of further disruptions to the supply chain.

By far the greatest power in the region unaligned with the US-led international order is China, to which we export more than 52 megatons of coal and 25 megatons of liquid natural gas annually. In return, Australia is expected to receive the majority of our solar panels and wind turbines from China—much of which will be, and has been, manufactured using hydrocarbons, especially coal.

China manufactures more than 80 per cent of all the solar panels produced globally, and 60 per cent of the world’s wind capacity. It is able to do so because of the natural comparative advantage it has in manufacturing cheap, low-end, export-bound products. Coal, gas, and nuclear fuel China’s giant factories.

In comparison, the Lowy Institute noted:

We [in Australia] don’t have comparative advantage in manufacturing batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, transmission facilities or generators.

And the Commonwealth Government’s Future Made in Australia initiative to create a renewable manufacturing base from the ground up is destined to fail. The plan has been lambasted by the Productivity Commission, among many others, because by all measures Australia lacks the aforementioned comparative advantage in manufacturing.

The Commonwealth Government’s aim to achieve an 82 per cent renewable energy target in the national electricity market, and to transition away from hydrocarbons to a greater reliance on weather-dependent renewables to achieve a net zero emissions target, will jeopardise Australia’s energy security. It will make us more dependent on China and, therefore, jeopardise our overall national security.

PEACE IS ACHIEVED BY PROJECTING STRENGTH

Big Wars reiterates one of the most important lessons in military history: lasting peace cannot be achieved through demonstrating weakness; it must be achieved by projecting strength. Peaceful eras throughout the ages, covering vast swathes of the Earth’s land and oceans, have been achieved by the security assurances of great powers—whether they be British, American, or Mongolian. The lasting peace in much of the developed world since WWII has been thanks to the ungodly number of nuclear arsenals controlled by the world’s nuclear powers—which have only been deployed on two occasions, on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Today, the West is in danger of sleepwalking into a war it cannot win. Western Europe’s disastrous renewable energy transition has made it more and more reliant on Russian gas, which has made European sanctions against Russia, in reaction to its invasion of Ukraine, less impactful and less credible. The recent preoccupation of the US and Canadian military on gender ideology (and equity over merit) have made them a laughingstock of their potential adversaries.

In Australia, polling commissioned by the IPA, asking young people “If Australia were in the same position as Ukraine is now, would you stay and fight, or leave the country?” revealed a concerning result. Of the younger respondents (aged 18 to 24) only 32 per cent said they would stay and fight while 40 per cent said they would leave the country. The rest were unsure. Of the older cohort (aged 25 to 34) about 35 per cent said they would stay and fight, but 38 per cent would leave the country.

IPA Deputy Executive Director Daniel Wild commented:

The negative, self-hate view of Australian history and culture being forced onto students at schools and universities means that now barely one-third of young Australians believe Australia is even worth fighting for.

In Big Wars, Storey proffers numerous examples of the critical role that public support plays in the success of military campaigns and leadership. Public opposition against the Vietnam war back home, for example, ultimately doomed US military efforts in that conflict. The explosion of pent-up animosity against Muammar Gaddafi (pictured below), in the Libyan civil war, ultimately ended with his demise.

Young Australians need to feel they have something to fight for if Australia is to overcome any military and quasi-military challenges from regional adversaries. This includes any assault on our physical and digital infrastructure. Presently, the government’s obsession with renewables and identity politics undermines Australia’s national security.

REFOCUS ON NATIONAL SECURITY

In an increasingly volatile international relations landscape, Australia needs to reorient its attention away from niche ideological pursuits—like proselytising for net zero, critical race theory, and gender ideology—towards strengthening our national security and social cohesion.

Australia’s energy policy must prioritise security above all other considerations. Our education system needs to be reformed to instil national pride, unity, and a sense of belonging in Australia. And our critical industries must be allowed to function to their maximum potential in support of Australia’s national security.

John Storey’s Big Wars reminds us we all have a role to play in defending our national interest and preserving the Australian way of life.

This article from the Winter 2024 edition of the IPA Review is written by IPA Senior Fellow Kevin You.