In this interview, Dr Peter Ridd appeared on 4CA Mornings to discuss the IPA’s research on net zero.
All media appearances posted onto the IPA website are directly related to the promotion and dissemination of IPA research.
Below is a transcript of the interview.
John Mackenzie:
Now, this is an interesting article. This has come out on Saturday in the Cairns Post. Have a listen to this. This is a very interesting point. It’s an article from Peter Ridd who writes, “Cyclone Alfred,” this is before it hit, “Cyclone Alfred may well end up being one of the costliest cyclones in our history by virtue of it hitting a huge population centre.” He goes on to say, “There’s various groups that make a living out of climate catastrophism.” Isn’t this so true? “Climate catastrophism. Various groups will be drooling at the prospect of the smashed and flooded houses. To them, Cyclone Alfred is an opportunity, but the reality,” this is Peter Ridd saying this, “the reality is that cyclones are far less of a problem today than they were a century ago.” Which I must admit, did surprise me to read that on the Saturday.
So, I put a call through to Peter. He’s just picked the phone up. He’s the independent scientist and marine geophysicist, formerly at JCU at Townsville. Peter, good morning.
Peter Ridd:
Morning.
John Mackenzie:
This is a very interesting point you make, but it took my breath away for you to say, “The reality is cyclones are less of a problem today than they were a century ago.” Tell me about this.
Peter Ridd:
Well, firstly, we know where they are. I mean, with that Alfred, the bureau did a remarkable job. It was heading south and the bureau said, “Look, it’s going to turn right and head towards Brisbane.” That’s exactly what it did. So, everybody had a good opportunity to prepare, and yes, it didn’t quite get there, but everybody had a chance to prepare.
Cyclone Mahina, which smashed in north of Cooktown in 1899, Queensland, is by far the worst cyclone ever in European history. They had no warning at all. In fact, by the time they sent out the warnings, it had already crossed the coast and killed 400 people. Right? So, that warning is a big deal. The other thing is that nowadays our houses are so much stronger. I’m actually in Innisfail right now, and in 1918, a cyclone went through here, a town of a few thousand people, even in those days, and only a dozen buildings were left standing-
John Mackenzie:
Hell.
Peter Ridd:
… and that’s not because it was a particularly … It was a really bad cyclone, but the standard of buildings was very poor in those days. Now we have cyclone spec roofs, cyclone bolts. It’s all engineered properly. So, even when a cyclone does go through Cairns or Townsville now, it’s not as bad as what it used to be.
John Mackenzie:
Can I just ask you, tell me, everyone says, “Oh, the cyclones are more dangerous now because of global warming, et cetera.” Mahina, you just said, this is going back to sometime in the 1800s. You are saying that was the strongest ever. How would they have measured the strength of Mahina?
Peter Ridd:
Well, they’re only guessing, but the tidal surge was about five metres. Just think what five metres would do if that had gone through Cairns. Virtually half of Cairns would go under, certainly all the low … The centre of the city. There were dolphins and porpoises which were washed up onto one of the islands up to a height of almost 13 metres. Right?
John Mackenzie:
Hell.
Peter Ridd:
So, we’re talking an absolutely a genuinely cataclysmic cyclone in 1899. Now, there’s nobody where we’ve got an actual barometer there, but they think it was actually the central pressure must have been in the 800s. Normally, a 950 is a really low one, but this one got down into the 800s. But you can just tell because all these boats were washed kilometres inshore in Princess Charlotte Bay there.
John Mackenzie:
But everyone says, “Well, this is the era where you’re going to be getting Category 3s and 4, or even Category 5 cyclones.” What would that have been in the terminology of today, back in 1899? Would it have been a Category 5?
Peter Ridd:
It would’ve been off the scale 5. Yeah. Things which say are 5 now, this would not be in this one’s class, it was so bad. And by the way, the data for Australia does not show that the severity of cyclones are getting any worse. Now, you would expect it because warmer water should allow more energy for cyclones to get bigger and stronger, but actually when you look in the data, it actually shows, if anything, a slight decline.
But what you can say for sure is that there’s no real indication that they’re getting any worse, but we are now able to respond so much better that far fewer people die from it. Of course, the damage is huge because if that Alfred had hit Brisbane, a couple of million people, all the power lines would’ve come down, all the rest of it, and the costs would have been colossal, but that’s just because there was a lot of people there.
John Mackenzie:
Yes. Excellent update, as always, Peter, good to talk to you. Thank you.
Peter Ridd:
No worries. Thanks very much.
John Mackenzie:
Dr. Peter Ridd is the independent scientist and the marine geophysicist, formerly at JCU in Townsville. 12-
This transcript with Peter Ridd talking on 4CA Mornings from 11 March 2025 has been edited for clarity.
