In this interview, Brianna Mckee appeared on TNT Tv to discuss the IPA’s research into Australia’s birth rate and immigration.
All media appearances posted onto the IPA website are directly related to the promotion and dissemination of IPA research.
Below is a transcript of the interview.
Dean Mackin:
My next guest, her name is Brianna McKee. She is the national manager at the Institute of Public Affairs’ Generation Liberty programme, pro-freedom on campus programme, and is an IPA research fellow. Brianna has written recently about the declining birth rate in Australia, what it means for the nation and families, as well as what international experience on the topic can teach us. In addition, Brianna McKee has written on the issue of family policies. We welcome her to the programme. Brianna, hello.
Bri McKee:
Hello. Thanks so much for having me.
Dean Mackin:
I have been worried about our declining birth rate for a long time. It takes two people to make a kid. When that number is less than two, you cannot sustain a society by means that are natural. So we look to other means, some immigration, obviously, the only way we can account for our population growing here in Australia. Whether Australia likes that or doesn’t like that is a completely separate question.
But I’ve noticed that other countries, as you have alluded to, like Hungary, they’ve been doing a baby bonus. I know we had a bit of a baby bonus here in Australia, but it seemed to appeal more to those who were less likely to be working hard than those who did. That was of particular concern to me. I would love to have seen that spread out liberally or solely for those who were working hard, couples, hardworking couples, et cetera. What’s your take on all of it?
Bri McKee:
Well, look, I think demographic decline is one of the single biggest issues that Australia faces today, and it’s a much broader issue for the western world. Also, the Asian world, South Korea has the lowest birth rates in the world right now. It’s a big issue globally, everywhere, except Africa.
What we’ve seen today is … Well, the news is saying Australia is in the middle of a baby recession. So since 2019, birth rates in Sydney have dropped by about 8.5%. The birth rates in Melbourne have dropped by 7%, in Perth 6%, and Brisbane 4%. So recently we’ve experienced a decline in the birth rate, but this is a much longer term problem for Australia.
In 2020, our birth rate was 1.58 births per woman. What we’ve seen is that women in Australia are having less children later in life. So in the 1970s, the average age of first birth was about 25, but now it’s over the age of 30. So that’s the trajectory that Australia is heading on.
A really interesting survey, the HILDA Survey, shows that about one in four women and one in three men at age 35, they actually want more children than they have. But by age 49, they’re saying that … or 50% of them are saying they haven’t had the number that they wanted. So it seems that people actually want to have more kids, and the issue is that there are structural, social, political, and financial barriers that are in place that are stopping them.
Dean Mackin:
It’s very easy with the media, our culture, how much it’s changed. I mean my biggest regret in my life will be that I, A, only had one child, as you just alluded to, and, B, that I left it till I was 39 years of age to do so. I mean if I could go back in time, I would probably have seven or eight kids now. It’s something that I’ve ingrained into my child for multiple reasons.
I can see that it’s society. Go out, play the field, and live your life. But I mean the best part of my life has been raising a son, and I wish that was the perspective of most people and that the media would help to perpetuate that.
Bri McKee:
No, I totally agree. You see that today people are saying they wanted more kids, but they couldn’t. What we’ve seen is as the birth rate has declined, there’s been an increase in the housing price and also in the cost of living.
And so, this is one of the most significant barriers that couples face today. If you look at Sydney, the median house price is over $1 million. In Brisbane and Canberra, it’s about 830,000, in Melbourne 806,000. Just this year, price records have been set in four of our capital cities. And so, this problem of pricing is just stopping potential couples from entering the housing market. If you don’t have a house, it’s really hard to have a family.
So the intersection of the declining birth rate and the rise in the housing price is not coincidental. There’s a causal link between these two things.
Dean Mackin:
Absolutely. I wonder if feminism, to some point, and only for some women, I noticed there were ones, “We don’t need men. We don’t want to have a family. We’re quite happy just living our lives. How dare you suggest that we need children.”
I would suggest that everyone should have a child solely because I mean I have a look at relatives of mine, those who as they age, get in their 70s or 80s, they have their families around them to take care of them, to provide a very nurturing environment for them in their elderly years. Then I counter that by having a look at other friends and relatives who have no children, are in their 70s and 80s or in bad physical health, they’ve got no one to look after them, and they end up in homes by themselves. It’s a very tragic outcome when you have a look at that.
I bring that up solely for anybody, and I’ve done it to plenty of my mates in their late 30s or 40s who haven’t had kids yet. I try and convince them to do it for themself and for those reasons as well as a bit of a sales pitch. But I mean I really think it’s a very tragic end for those that don’t. Again, that’s my selling point to try and fix this problem.
Bri McKee:
No, I think you’re onto something there. The modern lifecycle of a woman is against family. What we’ve seen is that women are prioritising career over children, and that’s why they’re having children later in life. And so, yeah, feminism, I guess, plays into it.
But what we’ve seen is politicians, what I’ve noticed is they increasingly talk about motherhood as unpaid caring or a penalty. This feeds into the narrative that employment is empowerment and that women should be viewed through a commercial lens. Obviously politicians want women to get back into the workforce because that helps productivity, that helps the national GDP. But all these young women are entering adulthood and they’re being told a career is superior, motherhood is inferior, and of course that is problematic for the birth rate. It’s going to cause them to make choices that they might regret later in life.
Dean Mackin:
Yeah, I mean there were some people, you could call it a conspiracy theory if you will, who would go back and say that the push to get women into the workforce wasn’t to empower women, but was indeed to cause a decline in birth rate subsequently and almost guaranteed. As soon as you had both people in a relationship in the workforce, that meant that house prices could go up in a bidding war as it did. Subsequently, those who opted not to go in and maybe abstain and have children could no longer afford to because of all the other women going into the workforce driving up their house prices.
That’s not a man or woman thing that’s solely two people in … Whether it’d be the man or the woman, but as soon as you have two people in a family unit both working, the opportunities for more kids and the opportunities for the economy to push prices up of housing and just prices in general is always there.
Bri McKee:
That’s right. If you look at Australia’s family policy at the moment, it involves parental leave for mothers and fathers. That’s great, but the centrepiece is really our childcare policy. That’s been expanded significantly since 2018. It’s been a big focus of federal and state governments.
The problem with the childcare policy is that it doesn’t give women a choice. It prioritises the working woman who wants to have kids and get straight back into her career. But the stay-at-home mom, she receives no benefit whatsoever. Then, like you just said, that’s compounded by cost of living and housing prices. Women have to go back to work in order to pay the bills.
And so, women don’t have a choice today like they previously did, and this is essentially killing the stay-at-home mom and it’s prioritising the working woman. It’s meaning that families aren’t able to care for their own children at home.
Dean Mackin:
Yeah, it really is a shame. I mean I think those formative years, especially the first two, I think you can define who a person will be by who raises them and how much they have to do with them in those formative years. I think it’s imperative that parents spend as much time with their very, very young children as possible, and the government’s not allowing that to happen. Please stay with us, Brianna McKee. We’ve got a bunch of other things to talk about in particular on the other side of this short news break.
Advertiser:
This is TNT Radio.
Dean Mackin:
It certainly is TNT. I am with Brianna McKee. She is from the Institute of Public Affairs, a terrific journalist, and giving me some numbers, but some frightening numbers. I just asked during the break when you said South Korea had the lowest birth rate in the world, I’m waiting for a 1.3 or 1.4. Can you please repeat that number? It was horrific.
Bri McKee:
0.81 births per woman.
Dean Mackin:
Wow. I mean that is an economy, that is a society that, over time, would basically cease to exist. I did note, and it surprised me, but it doesn’t now that I know the birth rate, that they’ve been looking at mass migration, one of the very few Asian countries to do so. Now I understand why.
Bri McKee:
Yes. I mean Japan is another example of a country that’s not doing well with its birth rate, and they refuse to use migration to offset the issues there. So their childbearing population is shrinking, their ageing population is increasing. Their birth rate is at 1.37%, so slightly better. But they are facing the question of is it too late to reverse the decline? Because they’ve introduced policies and incentives trying to encourage couples to have children, and they’ve met with quite little success at this point in time.
The Japanese situation, it speaks to the issue of population spiral. So basically after a population drops under replacement rate, which is 2.1 births per woman, the situation can very quickly deteriorate. So if, on average, women are having 1.6 births, then a cohort will halve in three generations, if they’re having 1.4 births, the cohort will halve in about two generations, and one birth per woman, the cohort will halve in a generation. So this issue of population spiral is a real one. It’s a slippery slope, and many countries are in the danger zone.
Dean Mackin:
Well, I do say this tongue in cheek. Over the last five years, we were mandated to do things I never thought that they could possibly do. That being the case, and that they didn’t, so many people succumbed. I would love for them to mandate that the Japanese and the North Koreans get busy because I would love for them to have a terrific outcome. I would love for their countries to continue and maintain their culture. I would love for them to do that.
Now Hungary, Hungary had a bit of a different approach. I like Hungary from a political perspective. They do tend to look out for their own, if you will, and they have addressed this problem. Can you tell us what they’re doing?
Bri McKee:
Yes. So Hungary is interesting because it’s one of the only countries that has really doubled down on family policy. In 2010, Viktor Orban, he came in with a tranche of policies designed to promote and support families. But it doesn’t come cheap.
So Hungary spends about 5% of its GDP on family policy. To put that in perspective, a normal defence budget would be around 2%. So Hungary is spending big, but it has seen some success. Its birth rate was low. It’s now increased since then.
They have a range of policies. They have a baby bonus, they have mortgage assistance. They have a loan, which is worth about AUD$42,000. If the couple then has three children, that loan is completely forgiven. Women who have four children never have to pay income tax again, which I can say as a woman that’s quite appealing. Then they have childcare subsidies, but also payments to families who want to look after their children at home.
So unlike in Australia, women and families get the option of how they want to use that money. They can put it towards childcare or they can use it as they see fit as a family.
Dean Mackin:
That’s quite the incentive to never have to pay income tax again. I’m sure there are many people, guys, scrambling now to identify as female and to identify two non-existent children. I say that again tongue in cheek, as a joke. But, yeah, I mean I love that there are people that are pushing for that, Viktor Orban pushing policies that would be very unpopular in other places. But when you look at the results, they tend to make sense.
Bri McKee:
No, that’s absolutely right. I know a number of women who would jump at the opportunity. People want families. As we discussed before, people want more children than they’re having. They want families, and these policies just incentivize what people already want and it makes it possible for them to act on that.
And so, I think they could really play into the political discussion here in Australia. We need to start having that discussion. I think our government is ignoring the issue of demographic decline, but it’s a conversation that really needs to be had.
Dean Mackin:
I wonder how many of these people that say, “I’m never going to have a child. I want to live my life.” You can’t say it’s selfish. It’s up to them. It’s completely up to them. But I wonder how many of them have been around close and loving families and seen all that comes with that and the joy that comes with it. I wonder, you know what I mean, if you had a look at people in the ’60s, they would have a much more positive outlook on the future as opposed to today. I would suggest that would change from country or continent to continent. But I would suggest overall we have a much more pessimistic view of the future than we had historically. Do you think that might be coming into play where I don’t want to bring children into a world that is so uncertain?
Bri McKee:
I mean we definitely see that today. We’ve heard about eco-anxiety. Children are so scared about environmental concerns and global warming that they’re saying they don’t want to have children. A survey that the IPA did recently said that most young people aged between 16 and 25 had a pessimistic outlook. They thought they would be worse off than their parents.
So there is definitely increasing pessimism, and we see that in the mental health issues at the moment. We’re facing a crisis in mental health. People are depressed, they’re unhappy. I was looking at some research recently, and it showed that living in cities is problematic and it can play into that, but it can also play into people having less children.
And so, the focus on high-density living in Australia, we’re a famously urbanised population, I think that plays into the pessimism, the isolation that people feel, but also living in cities leads to a lower birth rate as opposed to rural areas. And so, the suburbs expanding the suburbs, encouraging families to move out there, that’s a potential policy issue that the government could address.
Dean Mackin:
I think there are lots of things that need to be addressed. Some could argue it’s like a snake eating its own tail. Some people are hesitant to have families as a result of a cultural shift in the country, yet that has been implemented to address the already declining birth rate. I mean it could be a gift that keeps on giving. Again, I say that tongue in cheek.
Brianna McKee of the IPA, we appreciate you very, very much. You do a terrific job, by the way, and I can’t wait to get you on the programme again.
Bri McKee:
Thank you so much.
Dean Mackin:
Thank you. Of course, you can check out the wonderful work they do at the IPA by getting on their website. From memory, I think it is ipa.org.au. Thank you, Brianna McKee.
This transcript with Brianna Mckee talking on TNT Tv from 1 August 2024 has been edited for clarity.
