In this interview, Adam Creighton appeared on The Rita Panahi Show – Sky News Australia to discuss the IPA’s research on Australia’s democracy.
All media appearances posted onto the IPA website are directly related to the promotion and dissemination of IPA research.
Below is a transcript of the interview.
Rita Panahi:
But first, the seat of Goldstein in Victoria has been returned to the Liberals after Zoe Daniel claimed it for the Teals in the 2022 election, with Tim Wilson becoming the first MP to reclaim a Teal seat. Now, Zoe Daniel is being widely mocked online for indulging in premature celebrations on the weekend, claiming a seat that was no longer hers.
Zoe Daniel:
In Goldstein, hope wins. The Liberal Party threw everything at us, guys, and we are standing here to celebrate.
Rita Panahi:
Now, in response to her loss, Zoe Daniel remains stoic. Some might say remains in denial. Writing on Instagram, “That while the media has called the result in Goldstein, I will wait for further counting out of respect for my scrutineers and the democratic process.” Joining me now for more on this is Senior Fellow and Chief Economist at the IPA, Adam Creighton.
Adam, if she wasn’t such a uniquely terrible MP, and she is my local MP, I may have a little sympathy here, but you never go the early crow. Amateur mistake, that one.
Adam Creighton:
Yes. Look, I think the mockery was very justified. It’s so embarrassing. I mean, on a human level, I do feel sorry for her a little bit. But it shocks me that amongst all those supporters and staff, all the political staff, someone didn’t say, “Hang on a sec. It’s kind of close and there’s a lot of pre-poll voting still to be counted.” The same with Kooyong, the same thing; they celebrated as well, and Ryan may lose that seat too.
But I think the broader point here is why do we still not know who’s won on a Wednesday night? Surely the AEC can hire a few more people to count these votes. I mean, this isn’t India. These aren’t tens or hundreds or millions of votes. They should be counted by now.
Rita Panahi:
In India, they actually count them very quickly.
Adam Creighton:
Well, yeah. So I don’t understand why we’re waiting so long, because this changes the whole political narrative, of course. If we had of known on Saturday night or even Sunday that these two seats were close, these two Teal seats, I think it would have changed the narrative for the Liberal Party, which of course is a very bad narrative; they’ve been flogged. But if we had of known they were going to-
Rita Panahi:
It was a landslide, regardless.
Adam Creighton:
Absolutely.
Rita Panahi:
But perhaps just slightly less.
Adam Creighton:
But yeah, look, I just think that we should know sooner. And surely it wouldn’t cost the AEC too much more money.
Rita Panahi:
Well, I think that you’ve got to take into account mail-in ballots. And if they’re waiting for Australia Post to deliver mail that was perhaps posted Friday, then I think that one can understand. The number of people who are voting early these days-
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, it’s a lot. It’s a lot.
Rita Panahi:
… is a lot. It used to be something that you would just do if for some real reason you couldn’t vote on Saturday. But that brings me to an important point. I’m being told that members of the Jewish community, particularly the more devout members who observe Sabbath, they don’t vote on Saturday. They do tend to be overrepresented in the mail-in votes, early votes. And perhaps this is part of the reason why we are seeing this swing that got Tim Wilson over the line, and may still get Amelia Hamer over the line in Kooyong.
Adam Creighton:
It’s also preferences too. I think the big point from this election is that the preferences really matter now more than ever. I mean, of course it was a huge win for Labor, but actually their primary vote was lower than what Julia Gillard got in 2010 when she just scraped in. So I’m just talking about first-preference votes. So it’s all about preferences now. Preferences really matter. I think, going forward, people need to understand that what they do on their How to Vote card really matters.
Rita Panahi:
Absolutely. Now to the so-called Moderate Libs, or the bedwetters as they are also known. Well, they’ve lost their collective minds about the so-called Trump factor in the election. News.com.au is reporting that in the final days of the election, Peter Dutton’s inner circle was blaming Donald Trump for the Coalition’s looming collapse. A senior Liberal MP told the site, “Honestly, easily the single biggest factor is Trump.”
Adam, that sounds like a rather convenient excuse. It’s almost like Labor blaming Russia for high energy costs locally.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, that’s right.
Rita Panahi:
Peter Dutton lost because he was weak, had weak policies. No one could remember the policies. No one really understood what they were, how they differentiated from Labor. He was about as Trumpian as Adam Bandt.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, look, I have to completely agree with you there. I think Trump was a factor in the election, and it certainly hurt the Coalition, I would say.
Rita Panahi:
It was a big factor with the media.
Adam Creighton:
Yes, certainly a big factor with the media. Trump is not popular here. We have to recognise that. And that’s largely due to the media, I would say. But it certainly doesn’t explain the scale of this loss, which is absolutely historic. And I think it’s largely down to the leadership, the leader. Peter Dutton, as much as I like him personally, was just not an appealing character for a large swathe of Australian society. And I think that was hard to change. And then the policies, as you say, were also terrible.
I mean, for me, the two that really stuck out was trying to fix a permanent cost of living crisis with two temporary policies. The fuel excise cut; only lasts 12 months. After 12 months, it goes back up again. And the $1,200 cash rebate. That just felt like a handout. Which it was.
Rita Panahi:
Which it was. As Senator Alex Antic said on Outsiders on Sunday, some of the policies look like mobile phone contracts, where you get something for 12 months and then it’s taken away.
Adam Creighton:
Exactly.
Rita Panahi:
I mean, really, that’s not how you fix the country. You mentioned that Donald Trump is not popular in this country, and the media is to blame. We are going to get to the infighting within the Libs and the leadership battle, but first I just want to play this utterly unhinged ill-informed rant on Trump in the Australian media. This is an example of what people on FM radio are hearing. This is just so asinine. This is Gold FM, heard on multiple markets, including Sydney and Melbourne.
Amanda Keller:
I read something yesterday that said-
Brendan Jones:
That’s a thing.
Amanda Keller:
… that said Trump officially has entered the psychotic emperor phase. He’s not coming back. The Pope image was it. That was the line. He’s crossed it and he just kept walking. He’s not trolling anymore. This is clinical delusion; the tariffs on movies, reopening Alcatraz. Saying, these aren’t policies. This is a man deep in a psychotic loop.
Brendan Jones:
Hang on. I missed that.
Amanda Keller:
He wants to reopen Alcatraz as a federal prison.
Brendan Jones:
Yeah, right. Okay.
Amanda Keller:
Yeah. And they say here, look, this is what the same thing went on to say. MAGA is clapping along like it’s a church revival. No one is driving the bus anymore.
Rita Panahi:
Jonesy and Amanda. This sounds like radio for people with room-temperature IQ. The Pope image is what sent her over the edge. It was a joke. I mean, do they seriously think Donald Trump wants to be the next Pope? I mean, I think it sounds like that’s what they believe. But what’s your reaction? Because it’s not isolated. You do hear commentary on US politics in this country that is so comically ill-informed that you dismiss it, but then people who aren’t that much into politics hear that and believe it.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, look, I think the Australian Liberal media here, or left-wing media here, they read the US left-wing media and then they filter it once again with a left-wing slant. So by the time it gets to Australians, it’s just completely unhinged. And I think this is a classic example of that. It’s just regurgitating the standard bland slogans and soundbites of Trump.
Rita Panahi:
That wouldn’t even get on MSNBC. That is so unhinged that the ladies of The View would maybe baulk on that.
Adam Creighton:
Exactly. And also, it’s just ridiculous. I mean, as if these people deeply care about Christianity. I mean, they’re just making up the fact that they feel offended from the Pope image.
Rita Panahi:
But I don’t think… Listening to that, she seemed to think it was some sort of a line that was crossed. That it wasn’t actually offensive because it was a bad joke, I think she seems to think he wants to be Pope.
Adam Creighton:
No, I think so. Look, I mean, Trump’s the first President where we’ve had AI, really.
Rita Panahi:
Oh, dear.
Adam Creighton:
And he’s decided to use it in an amusing way. It never used to exist, it’s a new thing, and he’s obviously a funny… It’s funny. I mean, I find it funny.
Rita Panahi:
Who doesn’t find it funny?
Adam Creighton:
Yeah. I mean, it’s hard not to find it funny, I think. He’s clearly not trying to be Pope.
Rita Panahi:
No. And if you want to find things to be genuinely aghast about, I’m sure you can find them if you could be bothered reading for five minutes. But picking things like that. And then they had the most absurd discussion about this new tariff on films that are made outside of the US. Again, not realising that every argument that we’re making is precisely the reason why he’s introducing this tariff. Because it’s an America-first policy. It’s not supposed to help Australia. It’s not supposed to help Canada. It’s supposed to help American filmmaking.
Now, let’s get back to the wets in the Liberal Party, pushing for a more moderate leadership ticket, which would include Susan Ley as Leader and Ted O’Brien as Shadow Treasurer. Adam, there are accusations flying all over the place about who is white-anting who, and there are certainly fingers being pointed at Susan Ley. She’s been accused of consistently undermining the leader and the party.
Adam Creighton:
Well, look, I don’t know the internals of the Liberal Party, the factions and all that sort of squabbling, but the accusation that it was a far-right campaign is kind of absurd. I don’t see how they could possibly become more moderate. I mean, if you just look at the fiscal outlooks. I mean, the Coalition released their own fiscal outlook just a few days before the election, and it was exactly the same, if not worse than Labor’s in terms of debt and deficit. So it was basically a Labor-like campaign.
So the argument that, “Oh gosh, they were too far right,” is just complete nonsense, I think. I mean, if you want to say it was the policy platform that lost them the election, it was because they were too much like Labor, not the other way around. So I think that’s the lesson that has to be learnt first.
Rita Panahi:
This is the lesson that is never learnt, though. Whenever the Liberals do go moderate and they become Labor-like, and they lose invariably when they do that, the lesson is, “Oh, we need to go more left. We were too scary and right-wing and too wrapped up in the culture wars.” And we’ve seen that in Victoria, we’ve seen it in WA, and I do fear it’s going to happen federally, because they always listen to the worst advice imaginable.
Adam Creighton:
But I mean, obviously whoever becomes leader, I mean it’s basically who wants to lose the next election, kind of thing.
Rita Panahi:
Well, it’s looking that way.
Adam Creighton:
It’s a hospital pass, isn’t it, really? So I do sympathise with… Some of the rumours are that certain people aren’t going to run, and that’s probably why.
Rita Panahi:
But it’s going to be a long and hard rebuild, so you do need to make this next decision right. You can’t just write off the next couple of years. You need to start the work now. And that’s where they faltered, and it’s what we’ve been saying on this programme all year. They just haven’t done the work to be ready for this election.
Adam Creighton:
No.
Rita Panahi:
Before you go, there’s already power plays happening within the newly re-elected Labor government. The powerful environmental wing of the party is pushing the Prime Minister to adopt a 70-plus percent emission reduction target by 2035. And they also want to pass the so-called Nature Positive laws within a year.
Adam, this would be disastrous for the nation on so many different fronts. The Nature Positive proposal just in itself would frustrate just about every major development, from mining projects to large scale building developments, hospitals, new estates, everything.
Adam Creighton:
Yeah, look, we really have to hope that sensible voices in the Labor Party prevail on these issues. It’s certainly a much expanded party room. I don’t know whether the new Labor MPs are more centrist or left. I’m still yet to read analysis on that. Hopefully more centrist and they want to keep their seats the next election. And so that actually could be a moderating force on the Labor Party. All of these new MPs, they’ll be in seats that could change back next time. They won’t want to do anything too extreme. I think that’s a good thing.
Rita Panahi:
That sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
Adam Creighton:
Well, maybe. But just on the emissions very briefly. Look, I mean, if they legislate 70, it’s not going to happen anyway. The 43 is not going to happen. They’ve actually only already fallen two points.
Rita Panahi:
Yeah, but they will bankrupt the country trying to get there. That’s the fear. Of course it’s not going to happen, but how much damage is going to be forced?
Adam Creighton:
No. True, they will do a lot of damage along the way. That is true.
Rita Panahi:
Adam Creighton, thanks for your time tonight.
Adam Creighton:
Thanks, Rita.
This transcript of Adam Creighton speaking on The Rita Panahi Show – Sky News Australia from 7 May 2025 has been edited for clarity.
